‘Serious danger’: Early voting shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in key states

More than 17 million ballots show a surprising trend that could see the winner of the presidential race likely predicted before Americans go to the polls on election day.

Kamala Harris is in “serious danger” after more than 17 million early votes show Donald Trump over performing in key battleground states.

Political analysts are floating the prospect of a winner known before election day if the early trends continue in favour of Republicans.

With less than two weeks before Americans got to the ballot box on November 5, local time, records are being smashed for early and absentee voter turnout.

Of the 17.8 million early votes, almost 6 million have been cast in the seven swing states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab data.

In Nevada, one of the swing states considered most likely to be won by Democrats, four days of early voting and mail-in ballots showed Republicans leading Democrats for the first presidential cycle since 2008.

Nevada poll watcher Job Ralston, who has covered the state for three decades, explained the Democrats’ “blue firewall” has “collapsed” in Clark County, where Las Vegas is located, while rural areas over perform. Republicans lead in ballots across the state by roughly two per cent.

Ralston said the “historic” numbers favouring Republicans “could signal serious danger” for Ms Harris.

Harris campaign insiders fear “blue wall” could crumble for the first time in decades as Mr Trump posts strong support in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

While Ms Harris is leading the national early vote in overall volume, the share of early votes has narrowed as Republicans show up in record numbers in swing states like North Carolina and Georgia.

Ms Harris is also underperforming in Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and now Las Vegas, Nevada.

Latest figures from Arizona show Republican registered voters accounting for 42.7 compared to democrat’s 35.9 per cent of the early in-person vote, and 18 per cent of the mail-in vote compared to Democrats’ 16.8 per cent, according to DecisionDeskHQ.

Political analyst Mark Halperin, who was the first to accurately report Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race, said it was too early, but that if the trajectory of early voting continues the winner will be known “even before the polls open”.

“Don’t overread the early vote, it can change, we don’t know who exactly is casting these ballots, how they’re voting,” he said.

“If this continues, Donald Trump can’t lose because the Democrats can’t possibly do well enough on election day.”

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Originally published as ‘Serious danger’: Early voting shows Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in key states