Trump trial verdict: What jury’s guilty finding means

Donald Trump’s conviction will affect him in more ways than one. This is what it means for him, his family and his push to get back into the White House.

Donald Trump is a convicted criminal – and Americans may well send him back to the White House anyway.

As shocking as that might seem in Australia, the thing to understand about the former and potentially future president is that most voters have already made their minds up about him.

It’s now nine years since he descended down the golden escalator at Trump Tower in Manhattan and announced his first presidential campaign. There have been so many ups and downs on the rollercoaster that is his political career since then that many Americans have become essentially desensitised to any new scandals.

Former president Donald Trump during the trial at Manhattan Criminal Court. Picture: Justin Lane (AFP)

And the Stormy Daniels saga – the one-night fling and the subsequent hush money deal that has turned Trump into a felon – is in fact not new at all, having first emerged in early 2018.

The conviction of Trump, the first against any president in history, is undoubtedly an unprecedented moment that puts the US in uncharted waters. Comprehending what can and will happen next, however, has to be considered in this broader context.

The truth is that while Trump’s trial has dominated the headlines in the US for six weeks, it has not captured the nation’s imagination in the way it would have had it been televised.

Instead, it has merely validated what Trump’s supporters and opponents already think of him. Poll after poll had suggested a conviction would do little to change those views, even as headline after headline revived a series of salacious suggestions about his conduct.

Donald Trump with Stormy Daniels in 2006. Picture: Supplied

The New York case, one of four criminal indictments against Trump last year, had long been seen as the weakest compared to allegations of trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat and mishandling classified files. It was infamously dubbed the “zombie case” within the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office as prosecutors went back and forth over laying charges.

Once Trump was indicted, however, it moved swiftly. The delaying tactics of his lawyers failed, making it the first – and possibly only – trial he would face before the election.

The day before the verdict, Trump’s pollster Tony Fabrizio argued the possibility of a conviction was already “baked into the cake” for the American electorate.

From Trump’s position, the cake has been looking rather delicious. His numbers skyrocketed when he was charged four times over, propelling him to the Republican presidential nomination. And the hush money trial has not dented the lead he has built since then over President Joe Biden, his opponent in November’s extraordinary rematch.

Perversely, becoming a felon – and potentially going to prison – will only add fuel to the fire that has been burning among Trump’s backers who believe his repeated complaints that he is the victim of a sweeping election interference plot perpetuated by Biden.

Curiously, the trial itself saw limited and largely peaceful protests, potentially the result of almost 500 of Trump’s most extreme supporters being locked up after the January 6 riot. That could change in the coming weeks and months as Republicans dial up the rhetoric.

Others may be more motivated to support him in more productive ways. After the verdict, donations to Trump’s campaign suddenly spiked, briefly crashing his fundraising platform.

Michael Cohen, former personal lawyer to Donald Trump. Picture: AFP

It must be said that there is no evidence Biden had anything to do with the charges against Trump in New York. Nevertheless, he will have to tread carefully in responding to the verdict.

Given his precarious position in the polls, Biden will be desperate to change the minds of some Trump supporters and resurrect his chances. In what will be a tight race, convincing even a small number to vote for him or stay home on election day could make all the difference.

But if he expresses too much glee in Trump’s predicament, he risks giving unnecessary weight to Trump’s untrue claims about a Democrat-led conspiracy to block his re-election.

Throughout the trial, Biden refused to comment on the case against his opponent. Tellingly, however, the campaign suddenly changed tack during closing arguments this week, sending legendary actor Robert De Niro to the courthouse to attack Trump.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has been found guilty on 34 charges. Picture: AFP

It seemed panicked and desperate, none the least because using celebrity endorsements failed miserably for Hillary Clinton’s effort to steer swinging voters from Trump back in 2016.

Moments after the verdict, Trump’s son Eric posted on social media that it “might be remembered as the day Donald J. Trump won the 2024 presidential election”. It could also be the day he lost it.

Trump looked ragged and rattled as he ranted outside the courtroom about the “rigged trial”. He has long feared going to prison, and while he is unlikely to serve a day before the election even if he is sentenced to a jail term, he risks being consumed by rage and revenge.

As much as this fires up his base, it risks turning the critical few undecided voters to Biden.

The jury has cast its verdict. In 158 days, the American people will cast theirs.

Originally published as Trump trial verdict: What jury’s guilty finding means