Tom Minear: Biden’s Trump card to make the 2024 election a 2020 rerun

Joe Biden hopes to turn a 2024 rematch with Donald Trump into a rerun of his 2020 victory. But there are going to have to be big changes in this campaign if he is to succeed.

AFP)

Joe Biden’s strategy to win a second term in the White House rests on something his father used to tell him: “Don’t compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.”

It’s a phrase the President repeats often, an acknowledgment that he is not perfect. But if the alternative for voters next year is Donald Trump – who is responsible for Republican loss after loss since his victory in 2016 – then Biden fancies his chances of beating him again.

Indeed, he seems to believe he is the only Democrat who can defeat Trump, whose chances of winning the Republican nomination have soared since he was hit with criminal charges.

While election day is still 18 months away, the contours of Biden’s game plan are clear. His understated campaign announcement, delivered in a three-minute video, paints him as the defender of democracy, abortion, equality and social security from “MAGA extremists”.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden are destined for a rematch of 2020. Picture: AFP

Framing 2024 as a continuation of the “battle for the soul of America” he won in 2020, Biden declares: “Let’s finish this job.”

It’s not Barack Obama’s rousing “Yes We Can”, but compared to the chaos of Trump – who is increasingly consumed by his own complaints rather than those of the ordinary Americans who still feel ignored by Washington DC – Biden’s calculation is that it will be enough to win.

And maybe it will. But next year’s election will be very different from the last one.

Biden will have a record to spruik and defend, full of surprisingly impressive hits and serious failures, including what could be a painful recession come next November.

Unlike last time, when Covid up-ended traditional campaigning, he will not be able to ride this out from his basement in Delaware. He will have to convince voters day after day, speech after speech, rally after rally – a task that is not easy for anyone, let alone someone who will turn 82 two weeks after Americans go to the polls.

Joe Biden hopes 2024 will be a rerun of 2020, but Donald Trump fancies his chances. Picture: Picture: AFP

Those who have worked with Biden up close lately say his mental acuity is as sharp as ever. But there is no escaping the fact that he looks old, especially combined with his propensity for awkward gaffes, and those doubts are only enhanced by locking in the underperforming Kamala Harris as his running mate again.

Ultimately, he hopes to convince enough of his supporters to line up and vote, if for no other reason than to keep Trump out of the Oval Office. It worked last time, and given everything Trump has done since then, it’s worth trying again.

That, of course, is all the more reason for the Republicans to think about a different candidate – someone younger and without Trump’s baggage, who could highlight Biden’s weaknesses and screw up his strategy. Then the President might have to say a prayer.

Originally published as Tom Minear: Biden’s Trump card to make the 2024 election a 2020 rerun