Replacing Joe Biden: could Democrats choose another nominee for president?

With questions continuing to swirl about Joe Biden’s mental fitness for another term as US President, experts have suggested how the Democrats could pick a new nominee.

Joe Biden and Barack Obama are on stage at the end of a record-breaking fundraising event in Los Angeles, taking in the applause from the likes of Barbra Streisand and George Clooney. Obama waves and acknowledges the crowd, the rock star politician of our time. Biden stands, smiling but strangely rigid; as the moment stretches out, the former US President takes the current US President by the arm and walks him off stage, a steadying hand on the older man’s back.

Biden’s critics are quick with their hot takes. It’s yet another brain freeze! they claim. “So embarrassing. The Democrats can’t let this go on, surely?,” Piers Morgan posts on X.

The White House rejects suggestions of a senior moment, as they did a few days earlier when Biden appeared to wander off during a photo of leaders at the G7 meeting.

But with “doing a Biden” now a hashtag, denoting dottiness, speculation about the mental acuity of the Democratic Party’s nominee for president is intensifying, prompting suggestions he should be replaced on the ballot. More and more people seem to be wondering if it’s time for someone to take the 81-year-old by the hand and usher him off stage in a more complete sort of way.

Star power: George Clooney, US President Joe Biden, Julia Roberts and former US President Barack Obama at a campaign fundraiser at the Peacock Theater. Picture: X/Twitter

But a challenge from within Democrat ranks is extremely unlikely, said Dr Jared Mondschein, director of research at the United States Studies Centre.

“The Carter presidency really taught both parties that challenging a sitting president just does not bode well for that party’s chance of success,” he said, referencing Ted Kennedy’s ill-fated gambit in 1980, which many think contributed to Jimmy Carter losing the White House to Ronald Reagan.

But “both Biden and Trump are older than 95 per cent of Americans – so there is always the actuarial possibility [both parties] will need to find an alternative candidate,” Dr Mondschein said.

Some commentators have suggested senior Democrats would move against Biden if he makes a hash of the first presidential debate against Donald Trump on June 27.

But Dr Mondschein is sceptical.

US President Joe Biden appeared to wander off during a paratrooper display in Italy for the G7 summit. Picture: X/Twitter

The long gap between the first debate and the second (on ABC on September 10), and then election day (November 5) gave the president “plenty of time to make up for any lost ground” if he turned in an unimpressive performance during the first debate, Dr Mondschein said.

If there was an “extreme incident” involving the president, a replacement nominee could conceivably be decided on the floor at the Democrat National Convention in Chicago in August, he suggested – “but it would be messy … lots of yelling and horse trading, and lots of negotiations”.

Some might assume Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris would be the obvious successor for the nomination, were he to withdraw (and she topped a recent Politico poll for alternative candidates), but commentators believe it would not be a sure thing.

California Governor Gavin Newsom. Picture: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images/AFP

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Picture: Mandel Ngan/AFP

Australia’s former Foreign Minister (and noted Americanophile) Bob Carr said Harris would lose to Trump in a general election.

“She’s a liberal, not a popular figure. She hasn’t carved out a reputation. She’s not seen as a problem solver as Vice President. There’s no media rallying call to make it Kamala Harris,” Mr Carr said.

The Governor of California Gavin Newsom “would have a fairly strong claim … given his clear media skills,” he said. “And he appears to be hungry for it.”

Former President Barack Obama escorts President Joe Biden off stage at the fundraiser in Los Angeles. Picture: X/Twitter

Newsom was nominated by 10 per cent of respondents to the Politico poll (compared to Harris, who received 21 per cent). Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg was name-checked by 10 per cent of voters questioned, while 4 per cent selected the Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer.

But more than four in 10 respondents said they had no opinion, or didn’t know, who they’d want as the Democratic nominee if Joe Biden dropped out – showing what an unpredictable melee such a contest would be.

American electoral statistician Nate Silver stated on X recently that Biden’s approval ratings were at an all-time low (37.4 per cent), but he still had a “decent chance because Trump is also really unpopular”.

Concerns about Biden’s age are “overwhelmingly consistent” in polls, Silver said, noting that he would be 86 at the end of a second term.

Former Foreign Minister Bob Carr. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Gaye Gerard

Jared Mondschein is the Director of Research at the United States Studies Centre. Supplied

Biden’s incumbency “counts for everything,” Mr Carr said, and any decision to pull out would need to be his alone.

But even the most secure politicians get asked to stand aside sometimes. In Australia, it happened to Bob Hawke and to John Howard.

Mr Carr said such discussions in politics are “very very difficult” – and in both the Hawke and Howard cases, the leaders dismissed the doubters and they fell into line.

“If the leader says no, I’m up to the job and I’m going to continue to do the job, then that’s it,” he said.

Dr Mondschein said Biden would not give up the nomination easily.

“Joe Biden has been wanting to be president for a very very long time. And he enjoys being president,” he said.

“The one thing that has limited his ambition in the past is his family. And right now his family is fully in support of his re-election campaign.”