‘Not much of a future’: Over 3000 Tuvaluans set to migrate to Australia

Thousands of citizens from a tropical paradise are scurrying to Australia due to a crisis that has left them with “not much of a future.

Almost one-third of Tuvalu’s population is seeking a landmark climate visa to live in Australia, as rising seas threaten their palm-fringed shores, according to official figures reported by AFP.

Australia is offering visas to 280 of the Pacific Island nation’s citizens each year under a climate migration deal Canberra has billed as “the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world”.

More than 3,000 Tuvaluans have already entered a ballot for the first batch of visas, according to official figures on the Australian program, which accounts for almost a full third of the nation’s population.

One of the most climate-threatened regions of the planet, scientists fear that Tuvalu has just 80 years before it becomes uninhabitable.

Two of the archipelago’s nine coral atolls have already largely disappeared under the waves.

“Australia recognises the devastating impact climate change is having on the livelihoods, security, and wellbeing of climate vulnerable countries and people, particularly in the Pacific region,” Australia’s foreign affairs department said.

Australia and Tuvalu inked the groundbreaking Falepili Union in 2024, part of Canberra’s efforts to blunt China’s expanding reach in the region.

Nearly one-third of citizens in Pacific nation Tuvalu are seeking a landmark climate visa to live in Australia as rising seas threaten their palm-fringed shores. (Photo by TORSTEN BLACKWOOD / AFP)

Under that pact, Australia opened a new visa category specially set aside for adult citizens of Tuvalu.

Already, there are signs the program will be hugely oversubscribed. Official data on the program shows 3,125 Tuvaluans entered the random ballot within four days of it opening last week.

“This is the first agreement of its kind anywhere in the world, providing a pathway for mobility with dignity as climate impacts worsen,” a spokesperson for Australia’s foreign affairs department said.

Tuvalu is home to 10,643 people, according to census figures collected in 2022. Registration costs Aus$25 (US$16), with the ballot closing on July 18.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese shakes hands with Prime Minister of Tuvalu Feleti Teo after signing agreements for the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union in 2024. Picture: X / PMO

Not ‘much of a future’

The visa program has been hailed as a landmark response to the looming challenge of climate-forced migration.

“At the same time, it will provide Tuvaluans the choice to live, study and work in Australia,” Australia’s foreign affairs department said.

But they have also fanned fears that nations like Tuvalu could be rapidly drained of skilled professionals and young talent.

University of Sydney geographer John Connell warned that a long-term exodus of workers could imperil Tuvalu’s future.

“Small states do not have many jobs and some activities don’t need that many people,” he told AFP.

“Atolls don’t offer much of a future: agriculture is hard, fisheries offer wonderful potential but it doesn’t generate employment,” he added.

The Falepili pact commits Australia to defending Tuvalu in the face of natural disasters, health pandemics and “military aggression”.

The visa program has been hailed as a landmark response to the looming challenge of climate-forced migration. (AAP Image/Mick Tsikas)

“For the first time, there is a country that has committed legally to come to the aid of Tuvalu, upon request, when Tuvalu encounters a major natural disaster, a health pandemic or military aggression,” Tuvalu Prime Minister Feleti Teo said at the time.

“Again, for the first time there is a country that has committed legally to recognise the future statehood and sovereignty of Tuvalu despite the detrimental impact of climate changed-induced sea level rise.” The agreement also offers Australia a say in any other defence pacts Tuvalu signs with other countries, raising concerns at the time that the Pacific nation was handing over its sovereignty.

Tuvalu is one of just 12 states that still have formal diplomatic relations with Taipei rather than Beijing.

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said last year his country shared a vision for a “peaceful, stable, prosperous and unified region”.

“It shows our Pacific partners that they can rely on Australia as a trusted and genuine partner.”

Originally published as ‘Not much of a future’: Over 3000 Tuvaluans set to migrate to Australia