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Middle East terror wars: Who’s left after the fall of Assad’s Syrian regime

The overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria is a pivotal moment in the modern history of the Middle East. It risks creating a haven for terrorists that could lead to a dangerous new form of Islamic State.

The unexpected fall of Damascus to rebel forces has left neighbouring regional powers assessing the fallout with a large power vacuum opening up.

It signals a reshuffling of power dynamics and it raises questions about the future of the Middle East and the role of world leaders in managing it to avoid further chaos.

These are all of the existing terrorist groups in the region and where they currently stand among nations set to be affected by the regime change.

AL-ASSAD REGIME

The overthrown regime of Bashar al-Assad was backed by the so-called “axis of resistance”; Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. The autocratic al-Assad dynasty had controlled the country since patriarch Hafez al-Assad took power in 1971.

A vehicle burns after anti government forces ransacked government security facilities, in Damascus, as Assad’s regime fell. Picture: AFP
A vehicle burns after anti government forces ransacked government security facilities, in Damascus, as Assad’s regime fell. Picture: AFP

The family belongs to the Ali Sylayman tribe. They follow the minority Alawite sect of Islam.

An anti-government fighter waves an Islamic flag from atop a tank in Damascus on December 9. Picture: AFP
An anti-government fighter waves an Islamic flag from atop a tank in Damascus on December 9. Picture: AFP

AL-QAEDA

The United States invaded Afghanistan and Iraq after 9/11 to remove Al Qaeda from the Middle East. But despite the elimination of its leader Osama bin Laden, they have continued to grow and evolve into groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Al Qaeda/ISIS). Its last leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was killed in a 2023 drone strike. The US has since placed a USD $5 million bounty on Hamza Salih bin Sa’id al-Ghamdi, who now serves on the group’s shura executive leadership council.

Hamza Salih Bin Sa'id Al-Ghamdi, a citizen of Saudi Arabia, is wanted for questioning in connection with his membership in Al Qaeda. Picture: Supplied
Hamza Salih Bin Sa'id Al-Ghamdi, a citizen of Saudi Arabia, is wanted for questioning in connection with his membership in Al Qaeda. Picture: Supplied

HAMAS

Hamas is a Sunni Islamist terror organisation with the aim of eradicating Jews in the Middle East to establish a Palestinian state.

Palestinian fighters from the military wing of Hamas take part in a military parade near the border with Israel. Pixture: Getty
Palestinian fighters from the military wing of Hamas take part in a military parade near the border with Israel. Pixture: Getty

They have controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007 before their invasion of Israel on October 7, 2003. Israel launched a counteroffensive into Gaza to remove Hamas from power.

Shocking footage showed terrified ravers fleeing the Supernova music festival in Israel.
Shocking footage showed terrified ravers fleeing the Supernova music festival in Israel.

The International Criminal Court in November issued an arrest warrant for Hamas military commander Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri, aka Mohammed Deif, while Qatar expelled the group’s most senior leader outside Gaza, deputy chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau Khalil al-Hayya, who is most likely in Turkey.

HEZBOLLAH

The militant Shia Islamist group operates in Lebanon and partnered with Iran to support the al-Assad regime. It was previously led by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah before he was killed by Israel.

Following the ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem vowed to continue supporting Palestine “in different forms”.

Men wave the flag of Hezbollah as they arrive in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on November 27, as displaced people make their way back to their homes in the south of Lebanon after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. Picture: AFP
Men wave the flag of Hezbollah as they arrive in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on November 27, as displaced people make their way back to their homes in the south of Lebanon after a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect. Picture: AFP

HAYAT TAHRIR AL-SHAM

The surprise blitz to the fall of Damascus was largely led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Led Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the Islamist militant group was originally an al-Qaeda affiliate group called Jabhat al Nusra.

The leader of Syria's Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that headed a lightning rebel offensive snatching Damascus from government control, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, address a crowd at the capital's landmark Umayyad Mosque on December 8. Picture: AFP
The leader of Syria's Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that headed a lightning rebel offensive snatching Damascus from government control, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, address a crowd at the capital's landmark Umayyad Mosque on December 8. Picture: AFP

That group was established with the help of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the former leader of ISIS. It is a designated terrorist organisation by the United Nations, the US, and Turkey.

HOUTHIS

The Iran-backed Houthis are the de facto ruling faction in Yemen, which has been in a state of civil war for a decade. While the group took power following the Arab Spring, the Houthi family rose to prominence during the Sa’ada wars between 2004 and 2010.

Houthi fighters brandish their weapons during a march in solidarity with the Palestinian people in the Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the militant Hamas group in Gaza. Picture: AFP
Houthi fighters brandish their weapons during a march in solidarity with the Palestinian people in the Huthi-controlled capital Sanaa amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the militant Hamas group in Gaza. Picture: AFP

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi commanded the group’s attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea following Israel’s invasion of Gaza.

Armed supporters of Yemen's Houthi rebels attend a rally in solidarity with the Palestinian Hamas movement's armed resistance against Israel in the capital Sanaa. Picture: AFP
Armed supporters of Yemen's Houthi rebels attend a rally in solidarity with the Palestinian Hamas movement's armed resistance against Israel in the capital Sanaa. Picture: AFP

ISIS

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is a terror organisation with a presence in the Middle East, Asia and Africa that seeks to unite Muslim countries under a single Islamic caliphate. The group is also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), or its Arabic acronym Daesh. Ahmad Hamid Husayn Abd-al-Jalil al-Ithawi, responsible for all operations in Iraq, was killed by the US in September. Following the fall of Assad, the US launched dozens of strikes on ISIS targets in Syria to prevent the group from taking advantage of the ensuing chaos. 

Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant propaganda photo showing masked militants holding the ISIS black banner of Muhammad.
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant propaganda photo showing masked militants holding the ISIS black banner of Muhammad.

IRAN

Iran, which has sowed turmoil in the region through Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, has lost its largest “Axis of Resistance” proxy with the fall of the Assad regime.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said rebel forces must open dialogue with the people of Syria to decide the country’s future and political system.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addresses world leaders during the United Nations General Assembly on September 24. Picture: Getty
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addresses world leaders during the United Nations General Assembly on September 24. Picture: Getty

KURDS

The Kurdish people are an ethnic minority native to regions spanning Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), currently led by President Nechirvan Barzani, was established in 1992 and officially recognised as an autonomous region in Iraq after the ouster of Saddam Hussein.

Fighters with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) inspect damaged and abandoned military vehicles and equipment at the Qamishli international airport, formerly a joint Syrian-russian military base, in northeastern Syria's city of Qamishli on December 9. Picture: AFP
Fighters with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) inspect damaged and abandoned military vehicles and equipment at the Qamishli international airport, formerly a joint Syrian-russian military base, in northeastern Syria's city of Qamishli on December 9. Picture: AFP

Kurds in Syria have sought help after the Turkish-backed  Syrian National Army began Kurdish forces near Aleppo.

A Syrian Kurd waves the flag of YPG (People's Protection Units) near Qamishli's airport in northeastern Syria on December 8, following the fall of the capital Damascus to anti-government fighters. Picture: AFP
A Syrian Kurd waves the flag of YPG (People's Protection Units) near Qamishli's airport in northeastern Syria on December 8, following the fall of the capital Damascus to anti-government fighters. Picture: AFP

RUSSIA

When the Syrian civil war broke out, Russia sent troops to fight for Assad and planes to effectively act as the Assad air force. Syria backed the Soviets during the Cold War, and Vladimir Putin saw Syria as his way of maintaining influence in the Middle East. Russia maintains several military bases in Syria.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 9. Pixture: AFP
Russia's President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 9. Pixture: AFP

ISRAEL

The Israel Defence Forces took over Syrian positions along the Golan Heights border and deployed paratroopers to conduct “defensive activities” after the fall of the Assad regime.

Israeli soldiers stand near tanks near the border with Syria on the Israeli side of the border on December 9, in Golan Heights. Picture: Getty
Israeli soldiers stand near tanks near the border with Syria on the Israeli side of the border on December 9, in Golan Heights. Picture: Getty

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Assad’s fall and offered the a “hand of peace” to the people of Syria.

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the area of Tayouneh in Beirut's southern suburbs on November 25. Picture: AFP
A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted the area of Tayouneh in Beirut's southern suburbs on November 25. Picture: AFP

SYRIAN DEMOCRATIC FORCES

The mostly Kurdish fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have long been funded and backed by the United States to fight against ISIS. Led by commander Mazloum Abdi, the SDF has also been fighting against Turkey-backed groups, like the Syrian National Army.  Many of the Kurdish fighters are from the People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey opposes the SDF for its links to the YPG and the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), which are considered by Turkey as terrorist organisations.

A demonstrator holds a Syrian opposition flag as members of the Syrian community chant slogans in Syntagma square in Athens to celebrate the end of the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Picture: AFP
A demonstrator holds a Syrian opposition flag as members of the Syrian community chant slogans in Syntagma square in Athens to celebrate the end of the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. Picture: AFP

SYRIAN NATIONAL ARMY

Backed by Turkey, the coalition of mostly Syrian Arab fighters fought in the north of Syria against Assad government forces, the Kurdish fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces, and Islamic State and Al Qaeda fighters in the HTS. The umbrella group, which lacks a centralised command, is made up of members from the Free Syrian Army, which emerged at the outset of the Syrian civil war more than a decade ago and the National Liberation Front, which includes factions like Ahra al-Sham, which seeks to establish an Islamic state governed by Sharia law.

Afghan nationals wave Taliban flags during celebrations in Khost province on December 8, 2024, to mark the end of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's rule after rebel fighters took control of the Syrian capital Damascus. Picture: AFP
Afghan nationals wave Taliban flags during celebrations in Khost province on December 8, 2024, to mark the end of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad's rule after rebel fighters took control of the Syrian capital Damascus. Picture: AFP

TALIBAN

The Taliban returned to power following the US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, allowing al-Qaeda to establish a presence in the country.

A Taliban fighter holds a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) along the roadside in Herat, Afghanistan's third biggest city. Picture: AFP
A Taliban fighter holds a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) along the roadside in Herat, Afghanistan's third biggest city. Picture: AFP

Under Supreme Leader Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, the Taliban is expected to continue its historically sympathetic relationship with al-Qaeda.

A convoy of Taliban security personnel seen moving along the streets as they celebrate the third anniversary of Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, in Herat on August 14. Picture: AFP
A convoy of Taliban security personnel seen moving along the streets as they celebrate the third anniversary of Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, in Herat on August 14. Picture: AFP

TURKEY

Turkey, under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has played a pivotal role in opposing the Assad regime and has been the most pivotal country in arming and supporting the Syrian National Army coalition of rebel groups in northern Syria.

Iranians chant slogans and hold Syrian and Palestinian national flags during a protest in front of the Turkish embassy against Turkey's support of an Islamist-dominated rebel alliance battling the regime in Syria. Picture: Getty
Iranians chant slogans and hold Syrian and Palestinian national flags during a protest in front of the Turkish embassy against Turkey's support of an Islamist-dominated rebel alliance battling the regime in Syria. Picture: Getty

Their goal is to counter the presence of Kurdish groups in Syria.

Fallen Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Picture: AFP
Fallen Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Picture: AFP

THE UNITED STATES

While it withdrew from Afghanistan and has a diminished presence in Iraq, the US maintains a pivotal role in the Middle East with the goal of countering the remnants of ISIS and supporting Syrian Kurds in their opposition to Assad-aligned forces.

President-Elect Donald Trump has said the US should stay out of the Middle East. Picture: AFP
President-Elect Donald Trump has said the US should stay out of the Middle East. Picture: AFP

The US military base in Syria, al-Tanf Garrison near the borders with Iraq and Jordan, supports the Syrian Democratic Forces. Incoming president-elect Donald Trump has said the US should stay out of Syria, saying it’s “Not our fight”.

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/world/middle-east-terror-wars-whos-left-after-the-fall-of-assads-syrian-regime/news-story/db3d17711f761627686656ff2b94e2fd