What the conflict in Ukraine means for Australia and China

The Russia-led conflict in Ukraine has wide-reaching implications for Australia and China. An expert reveals what it all means.

Why does the Russian invasion of Ukraine matter to Australia? Australian National University Professor of international security and intelligence studies John Blaxland tackles the key points.

What is the ripple effect of Vladimir Putin’s actions to invade a sovereign nation such as Ukraine?

Putin’s attack on Ukraine undermines the important but surprisingly fragile international order which enables the modern commodities we like and take for granted.

That order relates to the protocols for trade, telecommunications, loan payments and legal settlements including the exchanges of goods and how to operate and maintain economic and social protocols for the internet and information communications technology systems.

We have a larger economy than ever and its vibrancy is linked to the often just-in-time trading of goods and services they enable.

The attack in Ukraine is putting these arrangements at risk.

There are also genuine concerns that without considerable international solidarity in financial sanctions, Putin may be emboldened to go beyond Ukraine and seek to undermine and even attack countries like Poland and other increasingly nervous European states. The ramifications in terms of dislocation and disorder would spread quickly.

Russian President Vladimir Putin. Picture: AFP

Will China weigh in?

Close to home, in the Indo-Pacific, Putin’s Ally, is watching intently for the precedent set by Putin’s actions. If he gets away with this, it may give China confidence to further undermine the stability and independence of the self-governing regional economic powerhouse and vibrant liberal democracy of Taiwan. It appears China isn’t quite ready to launch its own attack, but if Putin achieves success in his attempts to quash Ukraine’s democracy, then Xi may be emboldened to bring forward his plans for a ‘glorious reunification’.

What action might China take on the back of the Ukraine conflict?

Depending on how successful Putin is and how he manages to contain the fallout internationally, Chinese President Xi will be gauging what freedom of action this gives him to be that much more adversarial towards Taiwan and others in the South China Sea.

Could Australia be in the firing line, if China were to become involved in the conflict?

China is highly unlikely to allow itself to get entangled in Russia’s fight; it will be keen to keep separate any assertive action it employs over Taiwan or the South China Sea. It is in both of their interests to play down their closeness for now, particularly with the results of Putin’s actions still uncertain.

Is it within the realm of possibility that China could attack or invade Australia at some point?

That’s unlikely in the foreseeable future, but additional and perhaps even more assertive actions than the recent laser pointing by a Chinese naval vessel at a RAAF P-8A Poseidon aircraft while in flight in the Arafura Sea north of Australia may be likely.

John Blaxland is Professor of international security and intelligence studies in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Coral Bell School of Asia and Pacific Affairs, at the Australian National University.

Originally published as What the conflict in Ukraine means for Australia and China