Bleep button: Trump shocks world with Israel-Iran outburst

Donald Trump shocked the world with his frank assessment of the Iran and Israel conflict, with US media outlets quickly looking for their bleep button. What could the future hold from here?

US President Donald Trump makes his way to board Marine One before departing the White House to attend the NATO's Heads of State and Government summit in The Hague. He hocked the world with his frank assessment of the Iran and Israel conflict. Picture: Mandel Ngan/AFP

Donald Trump shocked the world with his frank assessment of the Iran and Israel conflict in an outburst on the lawns of the White House. With cameras rolling, Mr Trump said that the countries have been for fighting “so long and so hard, they don’t know what the f*** they are doing”.

The US president is known for his forthright style and all capital letter social media posts. But this intervention caused US media outlets to quickly look for their bleep button when replaying the footage that went around the world in minutes.

Is Mr Trump right? Does Iran know what it’s doing?

That depends on your point of view. For Iran, firing a missile in breach of the ceasefire that was only two hours old is a deliberate move. The Iranian leadership wanted to undermine the US president who called their response to his bombing raids on their nuclear facilities “very weak”. Mr Trump said he hoped that Iran’s attack on a US base in Qatar meant they had “gotten it out of their system”. It appears they have not. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, is hiding out in a bunker in fear of US assassination, but has shown he still wants to give America a black eye. He had probably calculated that Israel would react and could then claim that the ceasefire was fake news.

Does Israel know what it’s doing?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had been playing a smart tactical and strategic political game of chess with Donald Trump until about 6pm on Tuesday night Australian time. Mr Netanyahu had dragged America into the war, in the same way that Winston Churchill had done in World War II, allowing for a decisive win on the battlefield. Mr Trump answered the Israeli leader’s prayers when he sent seven B2 jets armed with bunker-busting bombs to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. In choosing to react to “one missile” fired from Iran and begin the bombing campaign again, Mr Netanyahu was biting the hand that feeds him. Mr Trump’s outburst showed how angry he was at what could easily be argued was Israel’s ungrateful reaction. He sent those B-2 bombers to decisively halt Iran’s nuclear program, using weapons only owned by America. Mr Trump wanted to be able to take a victory to the NATO meeting in the Netherlands on Wednesday. Mr Netanyahu’s decision to strike back made Mr Trump’s declarations of a “forever” ceasefire look premature.

Will the United States walk away from Israel?

America has been Israel’s most unwavering ally. The United States was among the first to acknowledge Israel, when President Harry Truman backed the new state in 1948. Mr Trump even went as far as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem in his first term. That decision was controversial as the Holy City is claimed by three major religions and on the disputed border with the West Bank. But all friendships have a breaking point. Mr Netanyahu is on his last warning from Mr Trump, who does not take kindly to being treated like a fool. It’s unlikely that the US would walk away from Israel, however, Mr Trump may walk away from Mr Netanyahu, who has a tenuous grip on power. Mr Trump has already called for regime change in Iran, there’s nothing stopping him from doing the same in Israel. The main difference is that the politicians in Israel would almost certainly listen.

Is Iran’s Islamic Republic likely to fall as a result of the US strikes?

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Picture: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP

The Ayatollah is 86, but he’s not going down without a fight. Iran has a complex, layered set of security services. There’s the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military, the religious or moral police, and then the police force itself. Iran has clamped down on free speech. Protests about the mandatory wearing of hijabs for women following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, who was allegedly beaten while in police custody, were crushed. A grassroots uprising like in the Arab Spring in 2011, which saw regimes fall in Tunisia and Libya, remains unlikely in the short term. However, Iranian people continue to struggle under the weight of US sanctions. The country could not afford to finance a war, with workers in Tehran already complaining of being unable to survive after just 12 days of conflict which closed much of the city. In the longer term, the oppressive regime may be consigned to history.

What is Iran’s end game?

Success for Iran in the short term is simply survival of the Islamic regime which swept into power in 1979. The oil-rich country can continue to make the roughly 500,000 hard line supporters of the regime powerful and wealthy. They don’t care about the remaining 89.5 million people. The current conflict has proven to Iran the power they would have if they in fact have a nuclear bomb. Mr Trump claimed Iran’s nuclear facilities were “totally obliterated” but they did manage to move 400kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium to a secret location before the attack. They will be working overtime to rebuild their nuclear program despite the deaths of some of their key scientists. In the long term, they will try to rearm Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, while also continuing to support Houthi rebels in Yemen.

What’s Israel’s end game?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Picture: X

Mr Netanyahu wants complete military control of the Middle East. If Mr Trump’s assessments are right about Iran’s nuclear program, he has succeeded for now. Israel has won the war after an embarrassing attack from Hamas terrorists when Mossad and its military were asleep at the wheel on October 7, 2023. Now the Israelis need to win the peace. George W. Bush talked about winning hearts and minds in Iraq and Afghanistan by fostering democracy after toppling those countries’ leadership. The Americans had mixed success, with the Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan swiftly after the US withdrawal in August 2021. Mr Netanyahu, or his replacement, must come up with a credible solution to the problem of Gaza. There are almost 2 million refugees there now, many on the cusp of starvation amid complaints about a lack of aid. The strategy of allowing Hamas to hold power in Gaza led to the October 7 atrocities. Any new government in Gaza must be monitored to ensure aid and the billions in rebuilding funds cannot be wasted or corrupted.

Will Mr Trump be able to hold together this fragile ceasefire?

The US president pulled the rug out from his critics who mocked him with the term TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out – when he ordered the strikes on Iran. Mr Trump needs to use all his influence to keep Israel in check while hoping that his assessments of Iran’s nuclear capabilities are correct. The Ayatollah can never be trusted as he continues to call for the destruction of Israel as he has for decades. A strong and successful Israel is imperative for the United States and for the balance of the world. Mr Trump has rolled the dice, with the Iran attacks set to define his legacy. He has three and a half years more in power to prove that he was right.