Why would Bill Shorten resign now? The real reason the Labor beast is leaving politics

Bill Shorten rocked the political jungle with his resignation — but could there be more to his decision than meets the eye? Does he know a scandal is about to break?

When a big beast chooses suddenly and unexpectedly to leave the political jungle, it doesn’t take long for the tongues to start wagging.

And when that beast is as big as Bill Shorten, a man who though he has been at the centre of Labor politics for almost 20 years is still in his 50s, there is bound to be speculation that there must be more to his decision than meets the eye.

Is he going because some scandal is about to break? Does it mean he thinks the government is in trouble? Why, would he do this? Why now?

Bill Shorten announces his resignation on Thursday. Picture: AAP

These were the questions being asked on Thursday morning when Shorten shocked the small world of Canberra by standing next to Anthony Albanese in the Prime Minister’s Courtyard to tell the nation that after six terms in parliament he was done.

But amid the speculation this genuine sadness among his colleagues that he is leaving.

“I am going to miss him,” said QLD MP Shayne Neumann.

“I think his contribution has been immense. I think he will go down with Beazley and Hayden as one of the best Labor Prime Ministers we never had.”

But as to the questions swirling around his exit, the answer to the first is no — the NDIS minister is not fleeing ahead of a scandal.

But he has made it clear to a number of people he thinks the government is in real trouble.

“You can’t read this as anything else but a vote of no confidence in Albanese,” a senior Labor player said who has known both men for decades said.

“This is a bloke whose NDIS reform in one of the few pieces of complex politically difficult legislation that this government has managed to pass and the prospect of trying to do that in a minority was too much to swallow,” he said.

A senior Labor player called Shorten’s resignation a “vote of no confidence in Albanese”. Picture: NewsWire

A Labor backbencher close to Shorten said he has frustrated at the softly-softly approach to reform displayed by Albanese.

“I think he’s in the top handful of ministers in terms of ideas. The thing about Bill is he’s creative.

“This is a government built around a governing coalition of factions. But it’s also incrementalist.

“We’re trying to steady the ship on a number of fronts not looking for people with big ideas.”

While Albanese has on occasion sought Shorten’s political advice – and insiders say more frequently in the past year as the government’s position has deteriorated – as Captain, the Prime Minister has kept Shorten wellaway from the bridge

“Bill was not exactly at the epicentre of strategic decision making in government – ERC, question time tactics, that sort of thing,” is how one Cabinet Minister dryly described his exclusion from what he called “that tight inner circle.”

His friends as well as factional opponents also agree that as well as his worry at the trajectory of the government and his frustration at his inability to influence it, Shorten was also mindful of his weakened faction position.

Mark Knight’s take on Bill Shorten leaving politics.

It is not well understood that after the last election there was a genuine chance that Shorten would have been dumped from the front bench.

The threat to his position, did not come from his long-time Left faction rival Anthony Albanese but from his even longer Right faction rival and fellow Victorian Richard Marles.

“The numbers in Victoria make it pretty difficult going forward, I’m not sure he’d have a quota” a former Shorten staffer said.

A Left Minister agreed the reality of his dependence on Albanese has played a part in his decision to leave.

“It served both of their purposes for a clear exit before the next election,” he said.

“The fact of the matter he was at the mercy of Anthony and Richard and that’s not a place he wanted to be.”

The minister who has known Shorten for decades said Albanese’s strengths and weaknesses were mirror images.

“Bill has and had enormous strengths but he also had weaknesses. He had tactical strength but this hasn’t always been matched by his strategic strength,” he said.

“Bill is so good at seizing the moment. Anthony I think in opposition demonstrated getting beyond the short term was important.”

Bill Shorten’s family watch on as he announces his resignation. Picture: Instagram @albomp

The minister said there was no doubt that Shorten had been one of the best communicators for the government, particularly in recent months.

“Being liberated from leadership freed him up and made him more like the communicator he was before he got into parliament,” he said.

“The irony of his time as leader was that what had made him be considered as leader - his ability to communicate complex ideas that was relatable to ordinary people – at times deserted him when he was leader. In recent months that’s come back.”

He added that right the government was going to really need the sorts of communication skills Shorten possess.

“We need to sell how what we are doing is changing people lives and then encouraging people to look at the alternative,” he said.

“Maybe tipping an enormous bucket of shit on Peter Dutton might be enough but it’s a big risk.”

Bill Shorten with his wife Chloe and daughter Clementine after announcing his resignation. Picture: AAP

The other answer to the ‘why now?’ question is that the job Shorten is leaving for — Vice-Chancellor of Canberra University with a salary of around $1 million — is just too good to refuse.

“It’s easy to get a job after politics - overseas postings that sort of thing - it’s must harder to have a career,” a Labor insider said.

A Rudd Government minister who has since made his way in the private sector agreed, saying the public didn’t really grasp how politicians often struggle after they leave parliament.

“It’s pretty hard to find productive work after life in politics. There’s this idea you get on boards and looked after – but it’s complete garbage. It might have been the case in the 1960s but it just doesn’t happen now.”

He said that Shorten would have been weighing up for a while whether he was looking for a second act after parliament.

“You reach a call about whether there is going to be something big after this and he’s obviously made the call ‘I’ve still got a big gig in me’ and he’s obviously made that call,’ he said.

Originally published as Why would Bill Shorten resign now? The real reason the Labor beast is leaving politics