Matt Johnston: How the Allan government’s war on ‘fossil gas’ fell apart

After backing down a second time in her war on gas, it’s likely Jacinta Allan could’ve achieved the same outcome by offering the carrot rather than the stick. But that’s not the Victorian way.

Last year the Allan Government began a gentle back-pedal on its own plans to force more Victorians off gas.

In recent weeks, it’s picked up the pace.

The long winding ride began a few years ago when Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio set off down the path of net zero emissions, producing policy papers that had innocuous titles such as “gas substitution road map”.

The intent was to get households off “fossil gas” and onto the power grid, which she said would save them money on bills and be cleaner and greener.

No one paid much attention to her leisurely cycling until these documents – which also included “building electrification” – were explained to the public.

Firstly, newly constructed homes would be banned from connecting to the gas network.

Next, existing households would be forced to switch out old gas appliances for electric models, if they broke down and couldn’t be repaired.

This meant if your gas cooktop carked it, grab a brochure for the latest induction models.

If you had to rewire your house to fit more electric appliances on the switchboard, call an electrician.

Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio set out a bold strategy short on detail. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

The implications of this policy was that the government would decide what appliances were installed in your house, and when you were able to install them.

While many accepted it meekly, as you would expect in a state where a premier was able to gain electoral popularity when he effectively locked people in their homes for months on end, not everyone was happy.

The main issue they took aim at was the humble cooktop, which had long been used to stir fry, sautee, and flambee.

Feeling the political heat, Premier Jacinta Allan decided to take a hold of the handlebars last year, declaring cooktops would not be part of the forced electrification.

On Tuesday she back-pedaled with a bit more force, ditching space heating – such as ducted systems – from the mandatory switch over.

Old gas hot water systems are still heading for the scrap heap, but the rules dictating that households must switch to electric models have been pushed back to March, 2027.

The next state election is due in November, 2026.

The Government is still talking tough on landlords, saying they would have to change gas heaters to electric systems when they expire.

In the fine print, however, is a rather large asterisk in the form of exemptions.

If installing electric alternatives is too expensive – don’t ask me for a dollar figure, it hasn’t been provided – or can’t easily fit on a small property, then landlords are off the hook.

The same goes for owner-occupiers who are supposed to ditch gas hot water appliances at the end of their lives.

The policy provides off ramps for homeowners and landlords. Picture: Brenton Edwards

Depending on who you talk to, the government’s gradual change of direction on gas varies from ‘sensible compromise’, to an ‘environmental scandal’.

The government hopes it has placated everyone; that the energy lobby like the fact the rug won’t be pulled out from under their bosses’ mahogany desks too quickly so they’ll keep providing gas for industry, and green groups will still like the broader electrification push.

There is the risk, of course, that it has alienated everyone, without triggering sweeping changes.

What is now set to happen – more of a nudge to get off gas, with the promise of generous rebates and lower bills – could have happened without arduous restrictions and bitter public brawling.

Strong education campaigns around costs and benefits of electricity versus gas, alongside the fact the state is running out of gas, may have got similar results.

But that’s not the Victorian way.

Much better to enforce rules and regulations than encourage people to act for their own good, at a time that suits them.

One of the reasons that the back-pedalling may have started increasing at pace was the fact that the electricity grid is about to go through major change.

In 2028, the Yallourn power station is supposed to close forever.

At that point, the strain on the grid will be strong during darker winter periods when the wind isn’t blowing.

An influx of new customers to the power grid in the next few years, before alternatives are up to scratch, could cause serious problems.

That’s assuming the government adheres to its scheduled close date for Yallourn.

Imagine if, after all this political pain and struggle over “fossil gas”, it decided to extend the country’s dirtiest power station for another year or two.

Now that would be a truly wild ride.

Originally published as Matt Johnston: How the Allan government’s war on ‘fossil gas’ fell apart