Latest poll finds Opposition Leader John Pesutto lagging well behind Daniel Andrews

Opposition leader John Pesutto has made no ground on Daniel Andrews since last year’s state election, with polling showing the Coalition well behind Labor.

Victorian Opposition Leader John Pesutto has made no ground on Labor since November’s state election, latest polling suggests. Picture: NCA NewsWire

Opposition leader John Pesutto has made no ground on Labor since November’s state election, latest polling suggests.

A new Redbridge poll of 3000 Victorians shows the Coalition would suffer a similar embarrassing defeat if an election were held today.

Labor’s primary vote has increased slightly to 37 per cent from November’s result of 36.66 per cent to 37 per cent, while the Coalition’s has dropped from 34.48 per cent to 34 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the Coalition 56.5 per cent to 43.5 per cent.

The Coalition is leading Labor in just one age demographic, those aged 65 and over, renewing concerns about its ability to appeal to younger voters.

And it is trailing Labor in all but two metropolitan regions, the North-East and South.

Support for minor parties remained significant, especially in regional Victoria, with the Greens improving their primary vote slightly to 13 per cent.

The Coalition is leading Labor in just one age demographic, those aged 65 and over. Picture: David Geraghty

With the government set to unveil a suite of housing reforms this week, the poll shows Labor’s vote is lowest among Victorian who own a home outright, and at its highest among renters.

The poll result is a significant improvement on last month’s Resolve poll which had the Coalition’s primary vote at 28 per cent.

In July, after the government abruptly cancelled the Commonwealth Games, a Roy Morgan poll found support for the Coalition had surged 7 points to 35.5 per cent, ahead of the ALP’s 33 per cent.

RedBridge director, and former ALP strategist, Kos Samaras said the latest results confirmed not much had changed since the November election.

“Our findings confirm that conservative politics in Victoria face a demographic tsunami,” he said.

“They are doing poorly in the fastest growing voter cohorts, newly enrolled young Victorians, renters and migrant communities, especially Indian and Chinese Australians.”

Premier Daniel Andrews celebrates his win at last year’s state election. Picture: Jason Edwards

Co-director Tony Barry, a former Liberal Party strategist, said disunity and infighting continued to pull down the party vote.

Mr Barry said this was particularly evident in the 18 to 34 age cohort which remained at “electorally fatal levels”.

“These problems have been at least a decade in the making and there is no magic bullet or personality to fix the Victorian Liberals overnight, it is going to have to be a mid to long term reform project,” he said.

“However, the internal mindset of so many in the Victorian Liberal Party is broken and that remains the biggest barrier to any meaningful reform.

“Some of the blame for this rests with the leaderships of Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison and the internal cultures in Victoria they didn’t punish, and in many cases, rewarded.

“There are also still too many Victorian Liberal MPs who want to win government but without the inconvenience of discipline, hard work and ideas.”

In June 2021, just weeks before former Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien was rolled, Redbridge polling showed the Coalition’s primary vote ahead of Labor, 35.7 to 32.6.

Originally published as Latest poll finds Opposition Leader John Pesutto lagging well behind Daniel Andrews