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Here is everything Labor needs to do to secure another term at the next Victorian election

Victorian state parliament will soon return from the winter break. We look at what the government needs to do in order to win the next election.

While the parties decide how they will beg for the public’s confidence, we take a look at everything Labor needs to do in order to secure power. Picture: NewsWire / Josie Hayden
While the parties decide how they will beg for the public’s confidence, we take a look at everything Labor needs to do in order to secure power. Picture: NewsWire / Josie Hayden

As state parliament returns from a winter break this week, the spotlight intensifies on what both sides of politics need to do to sharpen their game ahead of an election that is now less than 500 days away.

Shannon Deery, Matt Johnston and James Campbell analyse how Premier Jacinta Allan and her government could secure a fourth consecutive Labor victory.

1. Address health and childcare crises

Labor’s two historical policy strengths — education and health — have started to show serious cracks. Victoria’s health system has been under immense pressure for years, with sub-par ambulance wait times that have in some cases led to deaths. Then there’s emergency department chaos and staff burnout that suggest a growing crisis. Promises of more money haven’t made problems go away. During the 2022 state election health was a key campaign issue but voters followed a historical trend and sided with Labor to get on top of the problems.

Recent childcare horrors have also put a spotlight on early education and particularly workforce checks. Picture: Supplied
Recent childcare horrors have also put a spotlight on early education and particularly workforce checks. Picture: Supplied

Four years on, voters could rightfully feel dudded that the health system remains on its knees. Labor must show meaningful progress in easing the crisis, with more concrete action such as expanding emergency department capacity to ease the load on paramedics. Recent childcare horrors have also put a spotlight on early education and particularly workforce checks. Both core issues crossover into Commonwealth territory but voters don’t care who is responsible — they just want problems fixed.

2. Secure federal funding for the Suburban Rail Loop (and avoid more debt)

Labor says its most expensive transport project is a vote winner because the it has been through two state elections and two federal elections. But with tunnel boring machines set to break ground next year, it’s high time proper funding sources were secured to ensure the $35 billion rail line doesn’t just pile more debt onto Victoria’s books. The state cannot afford to go it alone on the SRL East, and with serious doubts about value capture funding (which still hasn’t been defined), it’s imperative that the State secures cash from the Commonwealth.

Without a credible funding plan it leaves Labor exposed to attacks on its fiscal management and will likely see its credit rating downgraded. Picture: VIC Government / Facebook
Without a credible funding plan it leaves Labor exposed to attacks on its fiscal management and will likely see its credit rating downgraded. Picture: VIC Government / Facebook

Without a credible funding plan it leaves Labor exposed to attacks on its fiscal management and will likely see its credit rating downgraded. The other option is to pause the project until the state’s finances are repaired — which is another issue Labor must tackle. More broadly the government must rebuild trust in its infrastructure agenda after the cancellation of the Commonwealth Games and a succession of major project cost blowouts.

3. Tackle cost-of-living pressures head-on

The soaring cost of energy, groceries, petrol, and interest repayments have put the squeeze on Victorians. Tangible cost-of-living measures — beyond slogans — are critical to a successful election campaign in 2026. Jacinta Allan has already announced free public transport for anyone under 18 and free weekend travel for seniors, to kick in from January 1, giving her months of promoting the policy.

The soaring cost of energy, groceries, petrol, and interest repayments have put the squeeze on Victorians. Picture: Getty
The soaring cost of energy, groceries, petrol, and interest repayments have put the squeeze on Victorians. Picture: Getty

But his can’t be the end of the support for battling families, which doesn’t need to break the bank. Given the fact Labor has added to the burden of many families in recent years through a slew of new taxes, which will ultimately trickle down to voters’ hip pockets, the Government can’t be caught napping. And new taxes or levies must be avoided at all costs. If voters feel broke, they will punish any party they feel is exacerbating their problems.

4. Build on its youth vote dominance

Labor remains relatively popular with young voters, but the growth in the Gen Z cohort and the death — literally — of Boomer dominance will shape the next decade’s elections. If Allan can extend the lead she already enjoys in this area, pollsters say it would lock down all but half a dozen seats and secure an easy fourth term. To do this it must address the state’s housing crisis, which has caused rising rents, stagnant housing supply, and worsening homelessness. As in other policy areas Labor has talked a big game, but has failed to translate its messaging into tangible results.

Labor remains relatively popular with young voters. Picture: NewsWire / Aaron Francis
Labor remains relatively popular with young voters. Picture: NewsWire / Aaron Francis

Without a credible housing plan that includes immediate relief it risks losing inner-city seats to the Greens again, and outer-suburban electorates will be vulnerable to Liberal or independent challenges.

5. Tackle the It’s Time factor

Given no Labor state government has ever won four successive elections, the “It’s Time” factor looms large. It’s also been more than 50 years since a non-elected Premier was subsequently elected in their own right, which is more bad news for Allan. Rupert Hamer took over from Henry Bolte in 1972 and the Liberals went on to win government, but since then there has been a long list of premiers — Lindsay Thompson, Joan Kirner, John Brumby, and Denis Napthine — who inherited the job and couldn’t secure a majority for their party at the next election. Allan has been an MP since last century, and leads government that is seeking to be in charge for 16 years. How will she, and Labor, combat attacks on them as tired and out of ideas? Labor needs to humanise and popularise the Premier, while exploiting concerns about the Opposition’s readiness to govern. Running a campaign purely on its own track record would be risky business.

6. Stay united (and let the Victorian Liberals be the Victorian Liberals)

If all else fails, Allan and her team could simply sit back and wait for the Opposition to self-destruct. After all, it has excelled for more than a decade in that regard. Despite the Allan Government’s myriad failings, it has faced a fragmented opposition struggling for identity, relevance, and unity.

Between Liberal infighting, hard line culture war distractions, and an obsession with leadership speculation, there are few in Victoria who would yet seen the Coalition as a viable alternative government. Picture: NewsWire / Nadir Kinani
Between Liberal infighting, hard line culture war distractions, and an obsession with leadership speculation, there are few in Victoria who would yet seen the Coalition as a viable alternative government. Picture: NewsWire / Nadir Kinani

Between Liberal infighting, hard line culture war distractions, and an obsession with leadership speculation, there are few in Victoria who would yet seen the Coalition as a viable alternative government. There is a political adage that oppositions don’t win elections, government’s lose them; but there’s always an exception to the rule. If Labor can stay disciplined, avoid scandal, and project stability, Allan can contrast competence with chaos. If the opposition continues to be its own worst enemy, Labor’s best path to victory may simply be not getting in the way.

Originally published as Here is everything Labor needs to do to secure another term at the next Victorian election

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/victoria/here-is-everything-labor-needs-to-do-to-secure-another-term-at-the-next-victorian-election/news-story/09258a8b38e427089a2f41ab7fc337e8