Backroom Baz: Polling figures put Jacinta Allan’s future in doubt

She’s not in the firing line yet but internal discussions suggest Jacinta Allan may not survive as Labor leader until the 2026 election — but who could replace her?

Baz is back, and hasn’t it been a long summer? John Pesutto is on the Liberals’ backbench, Brad Battin has taken his job, first-term MP Sam Groth is now deputy leader and Moira Deeming is back on the team.

And just when you thought the bloodletting was done, there may just be a little more to go.

On the other side of the political aisle, Labor’s diabolical polling figures have sparked talks about whether Jacinta Allan will survive until the 2026 election.

She’s not in the firing line yet but the fact that there are internal discussions is a serious escalation in ALP affairs.

A record-low primary vote of 22, according to latest polls, will do that.

To put that into context, if that was replicated at the next election, Labor would suffer a comprehensive electoral wipe-out, handing the Liberal Party a massive majority.

All eyes are now firmly on next week’s Werribee by-election – if Labor loses, brace for change.

Whispers are growing that Jacinta Allan may not survive until the 2026 election. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

But who would take over? Deputy Premier Ben Carroll impressed some as Acting Premier over the summer.

On his final day in charge, he called out what many – me included – were already thinking: the weekly anti-Israel protests in the city need to stop. His reasoning? They hurt businesses, disrupt workers and tarnish Melbourne’s reputation as a safe, inclusive city.

On her first day back on the job, the Premier was quick to echo Carroll’s sentiments – word for word.

Keep an eye on quiet achiever Gab Williams, too, who many say could have a shot at the top job.

Still, cooler heads may prevail – even in the worst-case scenario of a by-election drubbing – and realise that it might actually be policy not personality that is costing Labor votes right now.

If they do, Allan might be safe for some time yet.

Quiet achiever Gab Williams may have a shot at the top job. Picture: David Crosling

Help us, comrades

With the Werribee by-election to contest and diabolical polling plaguing the ALP, is the party also tight for cash?

State secretary Steve Staikos issued what could only be described as a desperate call to a diminishing membership in recent weeks, urging them to pay up for another year.

But in an unusual move, even life members of more than 40 years, who are not required to pay fees, were asked to cough up.

It’s safe to say passing the begging bowl around to rusted-on members has left some most unimpressed.

Tim Smith with current MP Renee Heath.

Tim’s done his time

Is Tim Smith mulling a political comeback? The former member for Kew – who has spent several years in Britain since quitting politics in the wake of his drink-drive car crash – was back in town recently and was seen meeting with a number of Liberal MPs and party figures (above).

Baz’s spies say Smith has been encouraged to slip back into parliament via the upper house but has taken some convincing about whether or not it’s the right move.

There is a view that Smith has now well and truly done his time, and could bring some much-needed head-kicking ability back to the Liberal parliamentary team.

He was not only one of their hardest workers, but one of their most effective media performers. Baz couldn’t reach him to chat about a return, so watch this space.

Paul Guerra was confirmed as a guest speaker at a Liberal Party fundraiser set for next week.

Guerra of judgement? Some think so

Has the Victorian business community given up on the Allan government?

That’s the view of some after Victorian Chamber of Industry and Commerce chief Paul Guerra was confirmed as a guest speaker at a Liberal Party fundraiser set for next week.

He has been locked in to speak about Victoria’s future prosperity – and is certainly qualified. But that hasn’t stopped the tut-tutting by politicos and business figures alike, who say his appearance is highly unusually.

“The chamber is meant to be Victoria’s independent peak body representing the business community, including to the government of the day,” one senior business figure said.

“They are not meant to be the political fundraising arm of the Victorian Liberal Party.

“Political stunts like this call into question the chamber’s ability to facilitate that engagement in good faith.”

Overton off, for now

As if a Christmas leadership spill and shadow cabinet shake-up wasn’t enough, now there are more changes at Liberal Party HQ.

Baz is told deputy state director Sarah Overton will leave her post to take up a new gig with policy think tank the Institute of Public Affairs.

Baz is told she has impressed many within the party, with expectations she’ll land back at Spring St, ultimately as an MP. Watch this space.

Overheard

“After 10 years, a lot of people that have been driving the Holden want to give the Ford a go, and that’s political reality.Ben CarrollDeputy Premier explains Labor’s diabolical polling to the ABC’s Raf Epstein.

Guess Who?

Which former MP has thrown his hat in the ring for a job running media relations for one of the state’s most prominent industry advocacy organisations?

Got any scuttlebutt for Baz?

twitter @BackroomBaz

Originally published as Backroom Baz: Polling figures put Jacinta Allan’s future in doubt