Townsville economist not convinced by data suggesting city attracts ‘Millenial’ arrivals

A new regional population growth report placed Townsville in the top performers to attract Millennials, but one economist has pointed to flaws in the data which paint a very different picture.

Economist Colin Dwyer.

A new regional population growth report placed Townsville in the top performers to attract Millennials, but one economist has pointed to flaws in the data, which paint a very different picture.

The ‘Big Movers’ report released by the Regional Australia Institute analysed data from the 2011 and 2016 Census to track movements of people in and out of regional regions.

It reported a national increase of people ditching metro cities to live in regional Australia with 65,000 more people choosing to move to regional Australia from capital cities than the other way around between 2011 and 2016.

Townsville was listed as the third most attractive for Millennials behind the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast however Townsville based economist Colin Dwyer said he wasn’t convinced of its accuracy for the current situation.

MORE NEWS>>>

• Townsville Bulletin subscription: Sign up for $1 a week for the first 12 weeks

• Cowboys excellence centre gets $5m State Government boost for extra facilities

• Council approves alfresco dining to help businesses stay afloat

“The thing that stands out is it’s based on Census data in 2016 and for us it’s out of date, there’s a lot of things that have happened in North Queensland and Townsville in that time,” Mr Dwyer said.

“They may have missed that there was a recalibration after the 2011 Census and another in 2016 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and this is important to note.

“It did report an increase in Millennials coming to the region but there’s a key reason for that and it’s because we’ve got two universities, which bring in thousands of students.

“And in 2012 we had an army battalion move here with around 750 people so you could see the impact immediately.”

Mr Dwyer said the COVID-19 imposed recession added another complexity to building a strong economy.

He said Townsville natural population growth had remained positive thanks to babies always being born but it was the opposite for net migration, which has been in decline for decades.

“It’s a concern and we need to try and reverse it,” he said.

“I’ve been arguing for some time for diversification and de centralising of industries to create better higher paying jobs here with promotional opportunities.

“It’s a multi factorial issue, it’s not just job creation it’s about how do we retain those people (and) it’s about entertainment, it’s about lifestyle and also showing Millennials how to cope with some of those things they have concerns with like crime and safety and how you manage all of that in a regional location.”

It was an even worse situation in Mount Isa where the report found 2,017 people left the region between 2011 – 2016, making up 10.8 per cent of its population.

Mount Isa Mayor Danielle Slade said there had been a number of contributing factors for the negative population growth.

“We had the Global Financial Crisis in ‘08 and after that there were really really low commodity prices.

“Somewhere around 2010 – 2012 there were a lot of retrenchments from Glencore and I noticed a huge impact instantly.

“Mount Isa mine used to have an apprenticeship intake of hundreds but now they’re down to 20 twice a year so for us keeping our youth in Mount Isa has been a huge problem.”

Born and raised in Mount Isa, Ms Slade said the regional city had huge potential that could be realised with the help of the federal and state government purse. “The job prospects are here so there’s a lot of good reasons to come to a place like Mount Isa,” she said.

“Glencore often say it’s harder to get people to come and live here so that tells you people expect a lot more these days in terms of lifestyle so maybe it’s time Mount Isa caught up with that social infrastructure because it’s the only thing we’re lacking.”

Originally published as Townsville economist not convinced by data suggesting city attracts ‘Millenial’ arrivals