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Seats on knife-edge as final tally day looms on state election

Several seats remain on a knife-edge as vote counting continues in Tasmania's state election, with some candidates separated by fewer than 100 votes. The latest from the tally.

Former federal Labor member for Lyons Brian Mitchell will run as a state Labor candidate for Lyons. Labor candidates for the 2025 state election. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones
Former federal Labor member for Lyons Brian Mitchell will run as a state Labor candidate for Lyons. Labor candidates for the 2025 state election. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

3.45pm: The last exclusion in Bass has placed Labor’s Geoff Lyons and Jess Greene narrowly ahead of Liberal Simon Wood for a Labor seat, as well as excluding former Jacqui Lambie Network member Rebekah Pentland.

Labor candidate Melissa Anderson looks close to being excluded, which will benefit both Lyons and Greene.

Shooters, Farmers and Fishers’ Michal Frydrych is just 269 votes behind Wood and Independent George Razay a further 65 votes behind him.

2pm: Brian Mitchell has claimed the fifth seat in Lyons after Casey Farrell and Richard Goss were excluded from the count.

He joins other Labor candidate Jen Butler in returning to parliament, with Mitchell also marking his return to state politics after stepping down from his federal Lyons seat prior to this year’s federal election in May.

Labor Lyons candidate and former federal MP Brian Mitchell casts his vote at the Sorell Bowls Club in the Tasmania State Election 2025. Picture: supplied
Labor Lyons candidate and former federal MP Brian Mitchell casts his vote at the Sorell Bowls Club in the Tasmania State Election 2025. Picture: supplied

The final two seats went to Liberals’ Mark Shelton and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers’ Carlo di Falco.

12.44pm: Labor’s Meg Brown has claimed the final seat in Franklin and defeated Liberal’s Nic Street after Jess Munday was excluded from the count and her preferences distributed.

In Braddon, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party Adrian Picken looks likely to be excluded from the final three seats, with the Greens candidates Vanessa Bleyer also likely to be excluded.

The remaining three seats may then go to Liberals’ Roger Jaensch and Labor’s Anita Dow and Shane Broad.

Liberals’ Bass candidate Chris Gatenby was excluded, resulting in a likely election for running mate Rob Fairs.

Labor’s Melissa Anderson looks next for the chopping block as she falls behind in votes to Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Michal Frydrych.

He too looks unlikely to make it to the final seats for election, sitting on just 3,501 votes at 12.53pm.

11.33am: A number of candidates have been excluded in Friday morning’s count, pushing ahead some Labor and minor party candidates.

As at 11.42am, the TEC excluded Nationals candidate John Tucker and Labor candidate Casey Farrell in Lyons, with Tucker’s votes helping to give Shooters, Fishers and Farmers’ Carlo Di Falco an uptick in votes to 7635.

Shooters, Fishers, Farmers candidates Carlo Di Falco, left, and Lorraine Bennett. Picture: SAM ROSEWARNE.
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers candidates Carlo Di Falco, left, and Lorraine Bennett. Picture: SAM ROSEWARNE.

Farrell’s votes have meant the battle for the remaining four Lyons seats was cut down to three, with Jen Butler elected and Labor candidate Brian Mitchell sitting well ahead on 8594 looking likely to be elected.

Remaining Labor candidates Richard Goss was also excluded.

In Bass, another Labor candidate Luke Moore has been axed as at 10.24am, with his preferences helping to push fellow party members Jess Greene and Geoff Lyons ahead, with Lyons sitting ahead of Greene by about 363 votes.

Three seats still remain in the division, with Liberal candidate Rob Fairs likely to take a seat as well as a seat to one of Labors remaining candidates.

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party hopeful Michal Frydrych looks to be excluded next, sitting narrowly behind both Greene and Lyons.

One final seat remains in Franklin, with another Labor hopeful Jess Munday excluded.

Her votes are likely to be enough to get Labor’s Meg Brown over the line ahead of Liberals’ Nic Street.

EARLIER: Liberal Minister Madeleine Ogilvie has been re-elected as the count in Clark concluded with a late boost to push her just past running mate Simon Behrakis.

The result in Clark was determined by the distribution of preferences following the exclusion of former Liberal turned independent Elise Archer from the count.

The divvying up of Ms Archer’s votes pushed two women across the line to a quota: Ms Ogilvie and Greens candidate Helen Burnet.

Ms Ogilvie reversed an 83-vote deficit at the beginning of Thursday’s count to squeak home by 180 votes.

Ms Ogilvie said she was “grateful and humbled” to be elected.

“I want to thank everyone who supported and voted for me, from the bottom of my heart.

“My sincere congratulations to Marcus on his election and to Simon who is an incredibly talented politician. I know he will be back.

“I would really like to note the support of my husband, and my father Albert Ogilvie, and my incredible campaign team. Everyone who had a poster up at their house and business – thank you.”

“The Liberal Party outpolled Labor in every seat, including Clark. I call on Mr Winter to accept the verdict of the Tasmanian people and concede, rather than trying to govern by doing the deal with the Greens he promised not to.”

Clark Liberal MP Simon Behrakis and partner Lauren who is expecting their first child. Picture: Facebook.
Clark Liberal MP Simon Behrakis and partner Lauren who is expecting their first child. Picture: Facebook.

Elsewhere in the count Labor leader Dean Winter was re-elected in Franklin, along with independent David O’Byrne.

“I am grateful to the voters of Franklin for again placing their trust in me to represent them in state parliament,” Mr O’Byrne said.

“My commitment to Tasmanians today is the same as the one I made at the last election, held just over 16 months ago.

“I’ll continue to work constructively in parliament in the best interests of all Tasmanians.”

Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff said she was delighted to be returned by the voters of Franklin.

“This is an incredibly important term of parliament with unique opportunities to make lasting change,” she said.

“I will work with good heart and maximum energy to protect what’s so special about Franklin, and to improve people’s lives.”

Sitting Greens MP Cecil Rosol is back in Bass, Green Tabatha Badger has been re-elected in Lyons and independent Craig Garland is back in Braddon.

In the electorate of Bass, Labor candidate Jess Green holds a narrow 35 vote lead over running mate Geoff Lyons for Labor’s second seat.

Stock images from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission showing voting, polling places and the counting of votes. Must credit Tasmanian Electoral Commission.
Stock images from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission showing voting, polling places and the counting of votes. Must credit Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Two other seats remain too close to call.

In competition for the seventh seat in Lyons, highly favoured Shooters, Fishers, Farmers candidate Carlo di Falco crept up to 0.67 of a quota on Thursday.

A strong flow of preferences from the final Nationals candidate in the count — John Tucker with 0.35 of a quota — may help get him closer to victory.

Sitting Labor member Casey Farrell looks to be excluded from contention in Lyons soon.

And in Bass, independent George Razay was performing well with 0.34 of a quota, but with long way to go before multiple other candidates can be written off.

The count continues and is expected to be complete by Saturday afternoon.

The count so far:

CLARK

ELECTED: Kristie Johnston (Ind), Vica Bayley (Grn), Ella Haddad (ALP), Josh Willie (ALP), Helen Burnet (Grn), Marcus Vermey (Lib), Madeleine Ogilvie (Lib).

FRANKLIN

ELECTED: Peter George (Ind), Eric Abetz (Lib), Rosalie Woodruff (Grn), David O’Byrne (Ind), Dean Winter (ALP). LIKELY:, Jacquie Petrusma (Lib), Meg Brown (ALP).

LYONS

ELECTED: Guy Barnett (Lib), Jane Howlett (Lib), Tabatha Badger (GRN). LIKELY: Mark Shelton, Jen Butler (ALP), Brian Mitchell (ALP). Seventh seat: too early to call.

BRADDON

ELECTED: Jeremy Rockliff (Lib), Gavin Pearce (Lib), Craig Garland LIKELY: (Ind) Felix Ellis (Lib), Anita Dow (ALP), Shane Broad (ALP), Roger Jaensch (Lib).

BASS

ELECTED: Bridget Archer (Lib), Janie Finlay (ALP), Michael Ferguson (Lib), Cecily Rosol (Grn). LIKELY: Rob Fairs (Lib), either Jess Green or Geoff Lyons (ALP). Seventh seat: too early to call.

david.killick@news.com.au

Originally published as Seats on knife-edge as final tally day looms on state election

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Original URL: https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/tasmania/tasmanian-election-2025-closely-contested-race-for-last-lower-house-seats-heats-up/news-story/c14f5881b2b5fa8fa11329754fb34b9b