Tasmania state election: Likely winners and losers, FAQs and how we got here
As the votes are being counted, David Killick, the Mercury’s Political Editor, and Bridget Clarke explain the layout of Tasmania’s House of Assembly, the current state of play and how we got here.
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As the votes are being counted, the Mercury’s Political Editor David Killick explains the layout of Tasmania’s House of Assembly, the current state of play and how we got here.
There are 35 House of Assembly seats up for grabs in today’s election. Each of the five electorates will return seven members. The Liberals currently hold 14, Labor 10, and the Greens 5. The remainder form the crossbench made up of Lambie Network, former Lambie Network independents and independents.
There are 161 candidates. There are 35 seats.The quota for election is one-eighth of the number of votes in an electorate, plus one vote — last time that ranged between 7951 votes in Clark and 9257 in Lyons.
The most first-preference votes ever received by a House of Assembly candidate was 32,482 for Peter Gutwein in Bass in 2021, eclipsing a record seat by Will Hodgman in Franklin in 2018. Doug Lowe 51.2 per cent in Franklin in 1979 — the highest percentage of the vote by a single member.
Jeremy Rockliff won the highest number of votes at last year’s election with 19,572, or 27.5 per cent of the formal first preference votes in Braddon.
All but one of the current members of the House of Assembly are standing for re-election: Labor speaker Michelle O’Byrne did not stand for preselection. Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff, the longest-serving member of the House of Assembly, is standing to be re-elected as a member for Braddon at his eighth consecutive election since 2002. His 23rd anniversary of entering state parliament is on Sunday.
The Mercury has reported the results of every Tasmanian election since self-government in 1854, when the state was still known as Van Diemen’s Land.
The first true state election was in 1902, when a general election for the 14th parliament elevated opposition leader William Propsting as Premier. The newspaper reported the day after the election: “The results in all but the remote and more scattered electorates were made known in front of The Mercury office by 9 o’clock to fully 5,000 people, and the cheering upon the defeat of one Minister after another being signified by the illuminated telegraph board was loud and emphatic, thus freely emphasising the public feeling.”
This election is for Tasmania’s 52nd parliament.
Here’s a wrap-up of how the electorates stand:
BASS
The Liberals suffered a crash in their vote here last year without former Premier Peter Gutwein, who enjoyed enormous popularity during the Covid-19 pandemic. They are at risk of losing a third seat, but the recruitment of former federal MP Bridget Archer might deliver them a win. A moderate well-known for crossing the floor, Ms Archer has been a heavy presence in the campaign and is also a good friend of Premier Jeremy Rockliff.
She suffered a brutal defeat in the federal election, losing out to Labor’s Jess Teesdale after two terms in the federal parliament. If she wins – which is very likely – she will follow in the footsteps of Michel Ferguson, another Liberal Bass MP who transitioned from federal to state politics.
The loss of Michelle O’Byrne complicates things for Labor – she was their strongest performing candidate in the seat election but called it quits during the no-confidence motion, ending a 25-year career in federal and state politics.
BRADDON
Braddon is often considered the most critical electorate to determine if a party wins majority or minority government, and was the Liberal Party’s strongest seat in 2024, electing three members.
Independent Craig “Garbo” Garland was elected to the parliament at the last state election, securing the 35th and final seat in the expanded chamber thanks to strong preference flow in what was his sixth shot at politics. With a strong grassroots campaign, he is hoping to lift his first preference vote this election.
The maverick politician is a fisherman and an environmental advocate, with strong anti-salmon and anti-native-forest-logging views. Notably, he appeared in court last month on drug driving charges after failing a roadside test and being found with a small amount of cannabis.
Former federal Liberal MP Gavin Pearce is running. Despite getting the biggest swing to him of any coalition member in Australia at the 2022 election he decided last year he would not recontest his seat.
At the time Liberal Party sources said he did not want the party to endorse outspoken Bass MP Bridget Archer, who lost her seat at this year’s federal election.
FRANKLIN
The Greens were not far off picking up a second seat in Franklin last year.
Peter George is one to watch in Franklin. The former ABC correspondent had his first tilt at politics in this year’s federal election, running a slick and well-funded campaign that garnered 21.7 per cent of the primary vote.
He finished with 42 per cent of the vote after preferences – results he is hoping to capitalise on this time around. He has joined other independents Kristie Johnston and Meg Webb MLC in opposing the Macquarie Point Stadium, salmon farming, greyhound racing, and has called for a strengthened integrity body.
David O’Byrne may complicate things for Labor. The former Labor leader resigned from the party and moved to the crossbench in 2021 after allegations of sexual harassment came to light. He has maintained popularity as a local member, and may prevent Labor from securing a third seat.
LYONS
Lyons is the most diverse electorate – economically, socially and environmentally. Labor is trying to retain its two seats, one of which used to be held by former party leader Rebecca White. But the Labor ticket is strengthened by the running of Brian Mitchell, who in the lead-up to this year’s federal election stood aside to allow her to contest the seat.
Former Liberal John Tucker is running again with the Tasmanian Nationals. He left the Liberals in 2023, and had an unsuccessful tilt as an independent at the last state election, receiving just a quarter of the required quota. He had the leading hand in the downfall of the previous Rockliff Government after he and fellow former Liberal Lara Alexander defected to sit as independents in 2023 over concerns about the transparency of the AFL stadium deal, among others.
Michelle Dracoulis, Derwent Valley Mayor is having another crack as an independent after previously securing a Labor endorsement in 2023 before pulling out two weeks later due to mayoral duties.
Casey Farrel was elected in March following former Labor Leader Rebecca White’s resignation to move into the federal parliament.
CLARK
Clark is the Greens’ strongest electorate, with two members seeking re-election: Deputy Leader Vica Bayley and Helen Burnet. The Liberals are increasingly struggling in Hobart, with Simon Behrakis and Madeline Oglivie under threat.
Some Frequently Asked Questions:
WHAT TRIGGERED THIS ELECTION?
Many Tasmanians are probably feeling déjà vu tonight as they wait for the results of a state election – just 15 months after the last, and the fourth in seven years. Here’s a recap on how we got here:
Backed by the Greens and several crossbench MPs, Labor leader Dean Winter successfully brought on a no-confidence motion against Premier Jeremy Rockliff in early June, citing budget mismanagement and the Spirits fiasco. Refusing to resign, Premier Rockliff went to Governor Barbara Baker to ask for an early election – a request she granted, setting the date for today.
WHAT DO THE LATEST POLLS SAY?
Much of the polling in the lead-up to this election has pointed to a minority government. Yesterday’s polling, conducted by EMRS on behalf of the Liberals showed the 2025 election likely returning a parliament similar to the one in voted in just last year. This will mean the Liberals or Labor will need the backing of the Greens and independents in order to form minority government. Labor has ruled out doing a deal with the Greens, while in recent days Premier Jeremy Rockliff took aim at “radical independents”.
WHAT’S THE CURRENT MAKEUP OF PARLIAMENT?
Currently, the Liberals hold 14 seats, Labor 10, and the Greens 5. The remainder of the crossbench (five members) are made up of former Lambie Network independents and independents. To form majority government, either Liberal or Labor must win 18 out of 35 seats, however polling suggests this is unlikely.
WILL THE NATS GET UP?
The Nationals are running seven candidates across Bass, Braddon and Lyons, including ex Liberal John Tucker and ex-JLN members Andrew Jenner and Miriam Beswick.
The latter were booted from the party along with Rebekah Pentland after their relationship with leader Jacquie Lambie became untenable.
Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie told journalists at Richmond on Saturday the party was laser focused on the people of Tasmania and would be “backing small business, agriculture, mining, forestry, and fishing and making sure that regional Tasmanians have access to health and education services that people in Hobart take for granted.”
WHAT ABOUT THE STADIUM?
It’s fair to say the Macquarie Point Stadium has been the most politically charged issue of this election campaign.
The development – which is a condition of the AFL license for a Tasmanian football team, the Tassie Devils – has support from both major parties. The Greens meanwhile, are staunchly opposed, but still support having an AFL team in Tasmania.
The Devils made an unusual move by entering the political debate following the initiation of last month’s no-confidence motion, warning the political turmoil posed a serious risk to its future. Devils general manager of marketing Kath McCann was famously brought to tears over it.
The Tasmanian Planning Commission hearings – required under the Project of State Significance approval procedures initiated by the Rockliff government in October 2023 – begun last month. However, in April, the government introduced legislation that, if passed, would allow the PoSS process to be bypassed. The bill was effectively frozen when the government entered caretaker mode ahead of the election.
In the current parliament, the project has bi-partisan majority support in the lower house but not necessarily in the upper house. As it stands, the Liberal government and Labor opposition would need the backing of at least two of the seven upper house independents to pass the legislation.
But the stadium’s future largely depends on the support of the crossbench – a reality that is made tricky anti-stadium independents entering the fray and the Greens hoping to pick up another seat in this election. Independents Kristie Johnston, Craig Garland, and Peter George have said they will only support a minority government if the project is scrapped and the AFL license renegotiated. Both major parties have ruled out making deals with the Greens, The AFL, meanwhile, has refused to budge on its position – no stadium, no team.
Originally published as Tasmania state election: Likely winners and losers, FAQs and how we got here
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