Professor Richard Herr believes next government not likely to last four year term

As debate rages about who will form the next Tasmanian government, an academic has some advice for the contenders.

Hobart Tasmania Wednesday 16th July 2025. Sky News / The Mercury Leaders debate. Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff and Leader of the opposition Dean Winter shake hands prior to the televised debate. Picture: The Mercury / Linda Higginson

Forming the next government will be a “poisoned chalice” for both Jeremy Rockliff and Dean Winter, a Tasmanian academic says.

Political analyst Professor Richard Herr also believes it is unlikely the next government will last for four years.

He also said if the three Jacqui Lambie MPs elected at the 2024 election had “held together” there would have been no need for Saturday’s state election.

Professor Herr said the Labor Party “did very badly because they brought on an election for which they were unprepared”.

“The public both blamed them for bringing on the election and for not having a solid reason for it,” he said.

“Their campaign was at best uninspiring.

“Saying that the budget is bad is okay but not having a clear, but they needed a plausible solution for solving the problem.

“People simply didn’t believe it (Labor’s fiscal strategy) and that’s the problem.”

Election analyst Richard Herr at the tally room in Hobart, Saturday, March 15, 2014. (AAP Image/Rob Blakers) NO ARCHIVING

Professor Herr said while the Premier planned to visit the Governor to tell her he can form government after Saturday’s election, it would be a difficult road ahead.

“The Premier did what he did last election and seized the initiative and claimed victory,” he said.

“Last year it was, ‘we’ve got our fourth term of government, a historic record’ and now he’s saying we’ve got a fifth one.

“It’s very likely to be a poisoned chalice, and it’s going to be poisoned chalice for both Jeremy Rockliff and it would be for Dean Winter if he were to try and take it.

“Labor is still under administration, they’ve not got control of their own house, and to try and control an unruly parliament is certainly not in Labor’s interest at this stage.

“But it is going to be much harder job than it was last time for Mr Rockliff

“There was a sentiment among those who looked at it rather sanguidly on the grounds that, well, this is Jeremy Rockliff’s budget, and it was unpopular so it would be better for him to have to now deliver it.”

Andrew Jenner Lambie Network member for Lyons, Miriam Beswick independent member for Braddon, Rebekah Pentland independent member for Bass. Return to the House of Assembly question time. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

After four elections in seven years, asked if the next government would see out its four years, Professor Herr said: “It’s difficult to see how it can.”

He also believed that if the three Jacqui Lambie members had remained in her party the election would not have been held.

Rebekah Pentland, Miriam Beswick and Andrew Jenner became kingmakers in the last parliament but Ms Beswick and Ms Pentland parted ways with the party and sat as independents. Mr Jenner remained a JLN member but joined the Nationals when Senator Lambie decided not to run any candidates in state elections.

All three lost their seats on Saturday.

“There’s no doubt that had the Jacqui Lambie Network held together and provided some stability as a party on the crossbenches, we wouldn’t have been going to an election,” Professor Herr said.

“Jacqui’s clearly damaged her own brand in the state and has helped to contribute to the situation we’ve found ourselves in

Originally published as Professor Richard Herr believes next government not likely to last four year term