‘Politics can be cruel’: how Bass became the most volatile electorate in Australia
When PM Anthony Albanese recently announced teacher Jess Teesdale as Labor’s next federal candidate for Bass, he kicked off the latest battle for one of the most turbulent seats in Australia.
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When Prime Minister Anthony Albanese popped up in Launceston in December to announce teacher Jess Teesdale as Labor’s next federal candidate for Bass, he kicked off the latest battle for one of the most turbulent seats in Australia.
Once an incumbents’ paradise – held by just three successive members over 40 years from 1954 – Bass by the 1990s had transformed into the exit lounge of Australian politics.
During the three decades since, sitting members looking to hold onto the Launceston-based seat have found the task slipperier than a South Esk eel.
Over the past 11 federal elections, voters in the highly volatile electorate have turfed out no fewer than eight sitting MPs, with Labor’s Michelle O’Byrne (2001) and current Liberal member Bridget Archer (2022) the only two incumbents to successfully defend the seat.
From early 1996, Bass has had nine different representatives in Canberra, compared to just two for both Franklin and Clark (formerly Denison), three in Lyons, and six for Braddon.
With Ms Archer looking to complete a rare hat-trick of wins in Bass at a federal election due by May next year, the Mercury reached looked back on the most volatile era in the seat’s history.
Sylvia Smith, Labor (1993-1996)
In her second attempt to win Bass at the 1993 election, former school teacher Sylvia Smith took down three-term Liberal incumbent, Warwick Smith, by just 40 votes.
The Smith v Smith battle had a third and final act in March 1996, when the veteran Liberal won his seat back.
A member of Tasmania’s Legislative Council from 1997 to 2003, Mrs Smith died in March 2020, aged 80.
Warwick Smith, Liberal (1996-1998)
Starting his career as a solicitor at respected Launceston law firm Douglas & Collins, Mr Smith became a political fixture in Bass over a decade and a half from his successful first federal campaign in 1984.
Mr Smith retained the seat at the 1987 and 1990 elections, lost it in 1993, claimed it back in 1996, before suffering a final loss in 1998.
Leaving politics and Tasmania behind in 1999 for a new career in international finance, Mr Smith said he remained proud of being the electorate’s longest-serving member Liberal member, and for securing $25 million for York Park as Minister for Sport.
“I held Bass for nine years, lost to someone of the same surname by 40 votes, won it back again, but then lost again by 78 votes on GST issues,” Mr Smith told the Mercury.
“Politics can be cruel.”
Michelle O’Byrne, Labor (1998-2004)
One of only two incumbents to have successfully defended Bass since 1990, Ms O’Byrne said doorknocking and making herself available to constituents were instrumental in securing a back-to-back election win in 2001.
“Bass was always hard to hold – Lance Barnard told me it was marginal throughout all of his years,” Ms O’Byrne said of the former Labor deputy prime minister who held the seat from 1954-1975.
“In the 2004 Latham campaign, we were on track to hold the seat comfortably, but making an announcement on forestry in Tasmania within days of the election was a game-changer for Labor in the state.”
Ms O’Byrne is currently the Speaker of the Tasmanian House of Assembly.
Michael Ferguson, Liberal (2004-2007)
Having begun his political career on the Meander Valley Council, Mr Ferguson won Bass back for the Liberal Party at the 2004 federal poll.
But the former school teacher experienced the electorate’s fickle fortunes just three years later, when he lost the seat after just one term to Labor candidate Jodie Campbell.
Since 2010, Mr Ferguson has been a member of the Tasmanian parliament, and has served significant stints in senior roles including treasurer and deputy premier.
**The Mercury contacted Mr Ferguson for his recollections of representing Bass in Canberra.
Jodie Campbell, Labor (2007-2010)
A former deputy mayor of Launceston City Council, Ms Campbell claimed Bass back for the ALP at the 2007 election which brought Kevin Rudd to power nationally.
In late 2009, after enduring a period of personal and professional difficulties, Ms Campbell announced she would not recontest her seat at the next election, which eventually took place the following August.
*Ms Campbell politely declined the Mercury’s request for comment.
Geoff Lyons, Labor (2010-2013)
Although Labor retained Bass in 2013, the election resulted in yet another new face for the seat in the form of former hospital business manager, Geoff Lyons.
Mr Lyons fondly recalled the strong support he received from federal colleagues Dick Adams, Tanya Plibersek, and then-prime minister Julia Gillard, during his time in Canberra.
“The reason Bass changes so often is probably because most people have no idea what really goes on in politics, and the work done behind the scenes,” said Mr Lyons, who currently serves as a West Tamar councillor.
“Maybe if media reporting covered what actual achievements are secured for the people of Bass, members may last longer.”
Andrew Nikolic, Liberal (2013-2016)
Elected as one of Tasmania’s so-called “Three Amigos”, alongside fellow first-time Liberal MPs Brett Whiteley and Eric Hutchinson, Mr Nikolic served as government whip during his time in the House of Representatives.
Like so many of his Bass predecessors, the decorated army veteran was unable to defend his seat at the next election, and now works as a senior member of the Commonwealth’s Administrative Appeals Tribunal on the mainland.
**The Mercury contacted Mr Nikolic for his recollections of representing Bass in Canberra.
Ross Hart, Labor (2016-2019)
The Launceston lawyer said being in constant engagement with a diverse range of community members was the highlight of his time representing Bass.
“It meant that I was seeing groups from young children, to people seeking funding for community projects,” Mr Hart said.
“It was reassuring to see how many individuals and groups had ideas for great projects, and who were not seeking vast amounts of money to realise their dreams, but needed support from government.”
“It was an absolute honour to serve northern Tasmania in Canberra.”
Bridget Archer, Liberal (2019-present)
When Ms Archer won Bass for the Liberal Party in 2019, the former George Town mayor became the electorate’s ninth different member in 10 elections.
The farmer and UTAS graduate scored a second consecutive victory over former member Ross Hart at the 2022 election, and has since confirmed her intention to run again at an election due by May.
“I’m not sure why Bass has been a volatile seat in recent years, or why I held it in 2022,” Ms Archer told the Mercury.
“But I have tried to do what I promised in 2019 – that I would be a genuine and authentic representative, and that I would try to put my community’s interests first.”
Tasmania’s ‘bellwether’ seat
While all Tasmanian constituencies are different, some are more different than others.
According to political analyst, Professor Richard Herr, Bass has several features that make it much more susceptible to shifting political winds than its electoral neighbours.
“The primary one, I believe, is the accented diversity of the electorate itself having a
balance among the three key geographic elements that defines it,” Prof Herr told the Mercury.
“Bass has a large urban population, but not so large as to dominate the other sources of diversity as is the case for Clark.
“It has a significant rural component, but this is not the predominant characteristic as it is for Lyons.
“And Bass also has a significant peri-urban component much like Franklin, but Franklin lacks the substantial urban component.
“As a consequence, candidates have some difficulty in maintaining consistency of support across all three socio-economic components of the electorate.”
Prof Herr said that in previous generations, Bass had been defined by ideological divides and partisan loyalties, which funnelled voters into binary choices which made outcomes more predictable.
But as competing influences became more finely balanced, it became increasingly difficult to find a candidate able to consistently hold a strong personal following across the various influential socio-economic interests.
“Personal loyalties combined with a strong partisan constituency base have enabled long-serving members in other electorates to survive national swings,” Prof Herr said.
“Bass, on the other hand, had served as a bellwether, in part, because it has been difficult to develop that cushion of personal support across party alignments to resist reflecting national, or state, swings.”
Prof Herr said there were competing arguments about whether the high turnover of incumbents in any given seat was beneficial to its voters.
“At the individual level – a constituency may be advantaged by giving a member a long tenure so that the constituency enjoys the largesse that a minister can provide,” he explained.
“On the other hand, a long tenure can engender complacency and even corruption if
members feel they can take the voters for granted or be captured by the party machine for its benefit.”
Tasmanian state of play
The 2025 federal election night spotlight will be squarely focused on the sprawling rural seat of Lyons, where former state Labor leader Rebecca White is looking to kickstart her federal career in the electorate held by party colleague Brian Mitchell since 2016.
With Mr Mitchell stepping aside, Ms White will face established Liberal candidate Susie Bower, who achieved a 4.26 per cent two-party swing against Labor in 2022, and came within 1300 votes of victory.
In Braddon, the Liberal Party has endorsed defence contractor Mal Hingston to run in place of retiring two-term member, Gavin Pearce.
Labor recently announced 14-year Senate veteran Anne Urquhart would attempt a move to federal parliament’s lower house and become the party’s first member for Braddon since Justine Keay.
The Greens have endorsed Erin Morrow for the North-West seat.
Labor has announced Heidi Heck will run for the Hobart-based seat of Clark, while the Liberal Party has endorsed Glenorchy-based fashion designer Marilena Di Florio to take on independent member Andrew Wilkie.
Mr Wilkie has previously announced he will recontest the seat he has held comfortably at every election since claiming it from Labor in 2010, while the Greens will run Janet Shelley.
Incumbent Labor MP and federal minister, Julie Collins, will seek re-election in Franklin, where the Liberal Party has preselected law graduate Josh Garvin as its candidate for the seat, and the Green have preselected Owen Fitzgerald.
Two-time incumbent Bridget Archer will face Labor newcomer Jess Teesdale in Bass, where the Greens have chosen Charlene McLennan.
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