David Killick analysis: the government’s failure to communicate has come back to bite
In the words from the famous crime drama Cool Hand Luke: what we’ve got here, is a failure to communicate. Political editor David Killick delves into the no-confidence motion and votes. Plus, the current odds for a new premier or next political saga.
Tasmania
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In the words from the famous crime drama Cool Hand Luke: what we’ve got here, is a failure to communicate.
From the moment the makeup of our new 35-seat parliament was known, it should have been obvious that the old major party, majority rule paradigm was broken.
The Liberals cobbled together shaky deals with just enough independents to form government – but didn’t do the work to stay in power.
Thursday’s outcome is on them.
The support of three of the five crossbenchers gave the government the barest of buffers.
It should have been apparent to anyone who can count to 17, that keeping David O’Byrne and the two former Lambie members Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland happy was necessary but not sufficient to go anywhere near a full term.
It was the votes of Craig Garland and Kristie Johnston and JLN MP Andrew Jenner that brought the Liberals unstuck.
People who aren’t being listened to find other ways to make themselves heard.
Attempting to address people’s well-known long-held concerns on the eve of a no-confidence motion is as cynical as it is futile.
Labor doesn’t come out of this any better.
Dean Winter flagged his no-confidence his motion on Tuesday without having spoken to any of the crossbenchers about how they might vote.
What appears to have been a last-minute plan got away from him pretty quickly. Once the course was set, there was no backing down.
This week was a lesson that the major parties cannot ignore about the role of crossbench MPs in the expanded parliament.
This entire debacle, this whole cringe-worthy mess, could have been avoided had the people we elected to represent us had the foresight to work collaboratively.
Majority governments have the luxury of claiming a mandate and getting on with things.
Minority governments do not.
And even oppositions have to take a more inclusive approach.
Should Tasmania go the polls in six or eight weeks’ time, there’s a fair chance voters will be cranky with both major parties.
The Liberals will wear the blame for the Spirits and budget and Labor will cop a backlash for forcing an early poll. The stadium will hurt both.
The major parties will be hearing from the people soon enough. If there’s an election there might be even more independents next time.
Perhaps whoever forms the next government will be all ears.
Some possibilities of what could happen as Tasmania’s political crisis unfolds.
Estimated bookmaker’s payouts on a $1 bet.
1. $1.40: Parliament returns on Tuesday, passes interim appropriation bills. Premier Jeremy Rockliff visits Governor Barbara Baker late Tuesday and an election is called.
2. $2.50: A new Liberal leader is installed prior to parliament returning. Liberals continue to govern in minority.
3: $3: A new Liberal leader is installed prior to parliament returning and falls on first sitting day to no-confidence motion.
4. $7: Labor leader Dean Winter forms a minority Labor government in with the support of independents.
5. $25: Mr Winter is toppled by his own party. The new Labor leader forms a minority government.
6. $100: Labor forms a majority government with the Greens.
7: $200: Federal government finds constitutional loophole, places Tasmania in administration for its own good.
8. $1001: Liberals and Labor resolve impasse by forming strong, stable coalition government.
Tasmania’s Premier at 10am Wednesday, June 11, 2025.
1. $1.20: Jeremy Rockliff
2. $1.40: Eric Abetz.
3. $1.80: Michael Ferguson.
4. $2.10: Guy Barnett.
5. $2.50: Felix Ellis.
6. $3: Dean Winter.
7. $6: Madeleine Ogilvie.
8: $8: Josh Willie.
9: $101: Craig Garland.
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