David Killick analysis: Australia’s last Liberal living on borrowed time

Thirty months into the Liberals’ third term, can anyone now even utter the words “strong, stable majority government” without laughing out loud? Writes David Killick.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff announces the resignation of Attorney General Elise Archer from parliament. Picture: Rob Burnett

Thirty months into the Liberals’ third term, can anyone now even utter the words “strong, stable majority government” without laughing out loud?

Premier Jeremy Rockliff on Monday announced the state’s 11th ministerial line-up in 30 months.

We’ve had five ministers resign since the 2021 state election.

What happens now?

The premier is looking like he doesn’t have a lot of options.

If Elise Archer resigns from the House of Assembly any time in the next two weeks, he has little choice but to prorogue parliament.

The roughly three weeks it will take to conduct a recount and swear in a new member will leave the government at the mercy of the opposition and an increasingly hostile crossbench if sittings resume on October 17 as scheduled.

Premier Jeremy Rockliff press conference in relation to the Commission of Inquiry. Picture: Nikki Davis-Jones

(We began this parliament with the first independent in a generation – we now have four, arguably five).

If the Premier does prorogue, it will not only delay Parliament’s ability to deal with the Commission of Inquiry’s final report.

It will also completely reset the parliamentary agenda, dissolve committees and so on.

If Ms Archer does sit tight, Mr Rockliff has even more problems.

With no trigger to prorogue, he must face either a hostile chamber – or go to an election.

The temptation to pay the governor a visit must be well-nigh irresistible.

Nobody is ready for an election, not the Liberals, Labor, not the Greens and certainly not the host of independents who might be eyeing a spot in the new 35-seat chamber with its reduced quotas for election.

If going to the polls was a live option when Lara Alexander and John Tucker defected, it is even more so now.

The Liberals stand more of a chance in a snap election at a time of their own choosing than if they spend the next 18 months at the mercy of a most untidy parliament.

But the chances of Mr Rockliff holding on look increasingly forlorn.

There is another option.

He could stand down as leader and let someone else try to sort out this mess.

It doesn’t sound like that is something he will do willingly.

At least Labor could blame the global financial crisis for its terminal woes.

This government looks like it might just implode under the weight of a decade’s festering enmities.

Dying governments will never admit they are even unwell. But there are always signs.

Two and a half years into the Liberals’ third term, they may as well be billboards.

Originally published as David Killick analysis: Australia’s last Liberal living on borrowed time