AS maritime tensions rise in the South and East China Seas, Beijing has begun flexing its new-found muscle. Its ‘Great Wall’ fleet has begun boldly setting forth on force-projection cruises as far abroad as Europe.

At the heart of this rapidly growing fleet is its aircraft carrier, Liaoning.

This ship weighs some 67,000 tons and is operated by a crew of about 2500. It can carry up to 40 aircraft — including 24 fixed-wing fighter jets, with the remainder being made up of a variety of helicopters.

Now Beijing has announced it is well advanced in the construction of another, similar carrier. It may already be building several more.

It’s a move that has ominous implications for the balance of power in Asia.

Put against the 100,000 tons and 80 aircraft operated by US supercarriers, though, these ships seem almost trivial.

But the power of such a titan of the sea goes beyond raw muscle. There’s also the intimidation factor.

“Imagine if a Chinese carrier group arrived in South America at the next round of Latin American Integration Association talks,” says naval historian and analyst Dr Alexander Clarke. “Imagine the reaction of the US public, let alone their politicians …”

Remember when then Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott threatened to ‘shirt-front’ Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2014? Putin responded by sailing a naval battlegroup into the Coral Sea off Queensland.

The point was not lost.

THE DRAGON’S CLAW

China has ramped up visits by its fleet worldwide in recent years. Its ships have exercised with Australia’s off Queensland as recently as January this year.

Visits have included the US, Latin America, Europe and Africa. Trips have included Cape Horn and Cape of Good Hope, the Panama and Suez canals — as well as the Mediterranean, Black Sea and Bering Sea.

Cao Weidong told the People’s Daily: “The deployment of the new aircraft carrier will make the PLA navy more capable of conducting escort missions and protecting waterways along the 21st maritime Silk Road.”

Sound like the Cold War all over again?

Inside Liaoning

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According to Dr Clarke, this time it’s different.

“The USSR won attention through the cold war, mutually-assured destruction element. China has that — but also produces so many of the products we surround ourselves with in our daily lives.

“Russia is still limited to the ‘energy’ weapon as its big war stick. China, however, can cancel Christmas.

“It may represent a disruption to its own economy, but China’s leaders have consistently demonstrated taking long term views.”

Dr Clarke says China’s growing military belligerence could be used to disrupt major transport hubs such as the South China Sea. This would cause shortages of everything from bras to phones, computers to clothes; things which will disrupt the lives of many in a way much more subtle than weapons.

“This all feeds back though into our surprise at their actions, because — despite their size, and our dependence on them — we still don’t rate them as militarily capable. This means every time they do something we ‘discover’ their strengths,” he says.

GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY

The prestige and power of the United States has been paraded around the world’s oceans in the form of its giant aircraft carrier fleet since the end of World War II.

Even at the height of the Soviet Union, the might — and sheer number — of its super carriers was almost unassailable. Since the collapse of Soviet Russia in 1991, this position was been entrenched even further with the US becoming the world’s only superpower.

Such status, however, is now clearly in the sights of a resurgent China.

Though it remains a long way off.

At this point, both China’s training carrier Liaoning and the new vessel are essentially Soviet-era designs.

Size-for-size, sensor-for-sensor, aircraft-for-aircraft, they are vastly inferior to technological titans such as USS John C Stennis being deployed for the first time as a second US super carrier in the Pacific, alongside USS Ronald Reagan.

But China doesn’t need to win a war. It needs just enough to win the peace.

GROWING CONFIDENCE

China’s existing carrier, while it has taken part in several military exercises, is not regarded as being a fully operational combat vessel. Instead, Liaoning is a testbed for China’s emerging technologies — and strategies.

Nevertheless, Beijing recently released video footage of J-15 ‘Flying Shark’ fighter pilots finishing their flight-deck qualifications aboard the Liaoning (CV-16) in the Bohai Sea off northeastern China.

Their graduation represents a milestone for Chinese naval aviation.

It also spurred the People’s Liberation Army to confirm the rumours: It is building a new version of Liaoning in its port of Dalian.

“China has a long coast line and a vast maritime area under our jurisdiction. To safeguard our maritime sovereignty, interests and rights is the sacred mission of the Chinese armed forces,” Defense Ministry spokesman Yang Yujun said in an announcement on December 31.

The PLA Daily late last year reported Naval Military Research Institute analyst Zhang Junshe saying Beijing would need a minimum of three aircraft carriers to maintain patrols and training while also allowing for ongoing maintenance and improvement work.

It seems he’s about to get his wish.

DOMINEERING PRESENCE

The new 50,000 tonne warship (believed to be designated CV-17 or Type 0001A) builds on experience gained from the ex-Soviet carrier Varyag. This ship had been bought as scrap from Ukraine in 1998 by a Chinese businessman who said he wanted to turn it into a casino.

Instead, Varyag reappeared — fully refurbished — as the Chinese navy’s Liaoning in 2012.

Little else is known about the next-generation oil-fuel driven aircraft carrier, other than it will use a ski-ramp to help propel its roughly 40 aircraft into the sky like Liaoning — instead of the much more complicated catapults as used by the US Navy.

But Chinese Navy’s Academic Research Institute analyst Cao Weidong told the People’s Daily China that ‘virtually everything’ on the new ship has been redesigned.

“It’s going to have a brand new propulsion system, as well as an independently-designed hull that will be built with Chinese developed special steel. There is no doubt that its interior structure will be totally different from the Liaoning’s.”

The new ship’s expected in-service date been revealed, though it is not likely to be until the early 2020s.

Once active, however, China will join an elite club of nations capable of fielding more than one fully-fledged aircraft carrier. India and Italy each have two. France has one. The United Kingdom, while in the process of constructing two, currently has none.

The United States is operating 10 of its 100,000 ton leviathans, though mounting budget pressures are producing calls for this number to be cut back.

“America is the top dog,” says Dr Clarke. “Everyone expects to see their ships around; but somehow despite its size, those of the Soviet Union were always unexpected. It’s the same today with Russia (Case in point — the cruisers off Syria) and China — whose warships visits generate so much interest in the ‘surprisingly modern and capable Chinese navy’.”

The US military has said it expects China to build several further aircraft carriers within a 15-year time frame.

GLOBAL REACH

“Why is China building and deploying the world’s largest coast guard vessel? It’s status,” says Dr Clarke.

“It’s a demonstration of power that can be deployed around to say ‘look at how big I am, imagine how lethal my big grey cousins are’.

An unnamed Shanghai-based naval expert recently told Reuters that growing tensions in the South China Sea made the carriers an important part of furthering Chinese interests.

“The US has many aircraft carriers that are travelling all over the place in the South China Sea, which have caused problems for us,” he said. “Having a second aircraft carrier reduces the pressure on us. It will keep us from being bullied.”

Which is why China is working steadily at building up the foundations needed to become a global power in its own right.

Other than its seven artificial islands in the South China Sea, Beijing also announced late last year that it would build a naval base in Djibouti — strategically positioned on the Horn of Africa. Then there are rumours of similar talks with Fiji.

It has already built up enough replenishment and supply ships to make it the second most deployable fleet in the world. And Beijing is building more — and bigger — versions of these ships.

This will further extend the reach of China’s navy — and its aircraft carriers — deep into the Pacific and Indian Oceans, as well as covering the shipping choke-points of the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.

Dr Clarke says the most intimidating threat is the one you cannot see.

“Aircraft carriers are like that with naval diplomacy,” he says. “Normally you see just the frigate or maybe the destroyer, but the occasional visit of the carrier gives those ships far more potency in everyone’s mind. If you want to dominate the South China Sea, achieve a parity of sorts in the Indian Ocean and maybe disrupt things in the Pacific, you have first got to start getting into people’s minds.”

“You have to start looking the part.”

@JamieSeidel