‘Wisdom of crowd approach’ pays off in dividends for Premier’s first disaster

Premier David Crisafulli’s approach to Cyclone Alfred was a far cry from his predecessor’s blanket closure approach that got her into trouble, most notably, in the 2022 floods, writes the editor.

Flooding inundated the South East after Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred made landfall. Photo: Steve Pohlner

Natural disasters often define the legacies of our political leaders.

Anna Bligh was premier for 4½ years – and was booted from office with a record defeat in 2012 – but is still best remembered for her emotional, “We’re the people that they breed tough north of the border” speech at the height of the 2011 Queensland floods.

Former prime minister Scott Morrison will meanwhile always be remembered for his cringy and damaging “I don’t hold a hose, mate” defence when he was discovered holidaying in Hawaii during the 2019 bushfires.

It is early days for Premier David Crisafulli and, no doubt, there will be more bad weather before the next state election in 2028 to further test his leadership. But to date he has proven adept at making sure people understand the dangers involved without provoking undue concern or igniting panic.

Mr Crisafulli has stuck to the facts rather than trying to inspire us into being resilient with emotive language – or with repeated pledges to “keep Queensland safe”, as was Annastacia Palaszczuk’s standard fallback as premier during the Covid pandemic five years ago.

He has also taken a different approach from the Palaszczuk years. Rather than demanding compliance with an edict, he has encouraged personal responsibility – the equivalent of free enterprise versus the nanny state, if you will.

Mr Crisafulli has explained this on more than one occasion, with variations of: “Throughout this, I haven’t sought to dictate orders to people. We give the advice. People have responded accordingly.”

Then-Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk gives an update on flood recovery at Kingston East Neighbourhood Group in March 2022. Picture: Richard Walker

Premier of Queensland David Crisafulli Premier of Queensland David Crisafulli at the Kedron Emergency Services Complex to talk about the Cyclone. Picture: John Gass

Yesterday he was clearer than ever on that strategy when he said. “If you believe in people, you believe in local decision-making.”

It is a “wisdom of the crowd” approach that has paid dividends for him politically, most notably in the way he has devolved decisions for whether schools will open to the individual principals – a far cry from his predecessor’s blanket closure approach that got her into trouble, most notably, in the March 2022 floods when she unilaterally demanded no schools open on a day that turned out to be partly cloudy.

Ms Palaszczuk apologised for that ridiculous mistake, through some seriously gritted teeth: “Can I say to all the parents … I apologise for the inconvenience, but I think everybody would realise if you’re in my shoes and you were given the advice that was given to us – um, I think everybody would have taken exactly the same decision.”

Well, Mr Crisafulli now wears those same shoes. And he would not have made that decision.

Again, as he explained yesterday: “We give every individual a chance to make the best decision for them. And sometimes that might relate to a work decision. Sometimes that might be a family decision. But every time we’ve got to give them the chance to be able to do what’s right. And I have this overwhelming belief that people get it right when you give them the information.”

A car goes under floodwater from Cyclone Alfred at South Station Road in Booval, Ipswich. Picture: Molly Arlott/ Facebook

Flooding at the Nambour Bowls club following wild weather from ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred

Mr Crisafulli was at pains to point out that by allowing principals to decide if their school would reopen Monday, nearly 200 did – and so 27,500 kids attended.

“That’s always the best model,” Mr Crisafulli explained.

“If you believe in people, you believe in local decision-making – always. And I’ll always back a principal … to make an informed decision. And then I will back parents to make the next decision, on whether or not they believe their kids should go to school.”

It is a strategy that meant it was not Mr Crisafulli who would wear any of the political blame for a bad call on Sunday, like that made by his predecessor three years ago.

But it also a strategy that has its own challenges, among them the need for absolutely clarity and consistency in the information being provided to the public.

That is easy when it is schools. But it is far more difficult when you are dealing with the mayors of South East Queensland’s 21 local councils – a vast number of parties with a vested interest themselves.

Unlike principals, the mayors are politicians.

Inevitably, the Premier’s bottom-up style has led to some instances of confused messaging in recent days, particularly when Cyclone Alfred refused to stick to the script by stalling and dawdling its way across the coast. At various points – mainly on Saturday – there was differing advice about whether to stay inside.

We assume a post-disaster review will confirm all the various official missteps taken before, during and after Cyclone Alfred’s appearance, among them was a premature shutdown of the entire region of four million people fully two days before the first effects of the cyclone were felt anywhere onshore.

Flight Centre founder Graham “Skroo” Turner has since accused authorities of demonstrating a “lack of foresight and proportionality” in their handling of the preparations – a similar theme to his pandemic anti-lockdown arguments.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but he is right. Because, on balance at least, giving individuals all the information they need to make their own decisions depending on their own circumstances is a far better option than a one-size-fits-all, top-down approach.

This is perhaps a key lesson of the pandemic that we have just seen put into practice for the first time.

Originally published as ‘Wisdom of crowd approach’ pays off in dividends for Premier’s first disaster