Research shows vapers aged 12 are 29 times more likely to smoke

Decades of work to drive down tobacco use in Australia is at risk of going up in smoke.

Chief health officer turned governor Dr Jeannette Young

Decades of work to drive down tobacco use in Australia is at risk of going up in smoke with shocking new research revealing today’s generation of child vapers are up to 29 times more likely to become smokers.

A study shows teens who vape are five times more inclined to end up as smokers. And the younger the child, the bigger the pull towards cigarettes.

The first of its kind study, a joint venture between Cancer Council NSW and the University of Sydney, is published in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health.

“It’s the first Australian study to look at the relationship between teenage vape use and smoking over time, and across different ages,” lead author Sam Egger from the Daffodil Centre said.

“Even after accounting for other factors that could influence the likelihood that a young person would try vapes or tobacco, we found that teenagers aged 12-17 who had vaped are five times more likely to start smoking in the future than those who had not.

“The link was strongest for adolescents at the younger end of the 12-17 age range. The younger a person started using vapes, the higher their increased risk that they would subsequently try smoking.

“We found that 12-year-olds who had vaped were 29 times more likely to go on to try smoking than 12-year-olds who had not vaped.”

The findings will be a blow to former chief health officer turned governor Dr Jeannette Young, who announced when she left the role that she hoped to see Queensland become smoke-free.

Smoking rates in Queensland were driven down to just nine per cent in the state during her leadership.

Study supervisor Associate Professor Becky Freeman of the University of Sydney said the study reinforced why the national vaping reforms need to be strongly enforced.

“When it comes to teenage smoking, up until recently Australia was an international success story,” she said.

“Our Australian teenage smoking rates dropped from 58 per cent in 1996 to 14 per cent in 2023. But recent data has suggested a possible increase in teenage smoking over the same time period that vape use has exploded. Public health experts have warned that teenage vaping uptake has the potential to undo the positive progress Australia has made in reducing smoking. This latest study shows how real that threat is.”

It comes as new research from the University of Queensland revealed teens were more susceptible to smoking or vaping if they saw influencers or celebrities endorsing nicotine-related products online.

UQ’s National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research assessed the survey responses of more than 5600 people aged 12 to 17, who didn’t smoke or vape, and who had engaged with social media in the previous month. Alarmingly, 61 per cent reported they had been exposed to tobacco or e-cigarette content on social media in the last 30 days.

Originally published as Research shows vapers aged 12 are 29 times more likely to smoke