How contact tracing will change once Queensland borders reopen

Queensland’s intense contact tracing efforts will change dramatically once borders reopen and transmission events ‘fall through the cracks’ with the Deputy CHO revealing how it’ll work.

Hundreds of Queenslanders will fall sick with Covid each day by early next year as the virus overwhelms contact tracing efforts, according to the state’s deputy chief health officer.

Dr James Smith provided a glimpse into how authorities will manage cases once the borders open on December 17 and the virus leaks in as authorities continue to plead for people to get vaccinated.

While contact tracing will continue, there would be cases and seeding events that fell through the cracks, Dr Smith said.

“We do expect that we will see seeding events - and by that I mean people coming in with coronavirus that set off smaller outbreaks,” he said.

Queensland has had robust contact tracing protocols during Covid but all that will change once infections spread through the community. Picture: David Clark

“Those outbreaks will become more difficult to control when there’s more outbreaks than we’ve had previously.

“So in the past we’ve had small numbers of cases that we’ve been able to very intensively manage.

“That will become more and more difficult as we get more cases.

“So we will anticipate that it will become endemic, or spread within the community probably before the end of this year.

“Eventually I’d expect to see hundreds of cases a day.

“I’m not sure I’d see them - and I am using a bit of a crystal ball here - I’m not sure I’d see that before the end of the year, but certainly into next year we would.”

He said contact tracing would continue and “would never fall completely by the wayside”, but would not be as intense.

Deputy CHO Dr James Smith said there will potentially be hundreds of cases per day in Queensland once Covid is transmitting in the community. (Photo by Glenn Hunt/Getty Images)

“At the moment we’re following up with people very intensely, looking at their bank transactions, CCTV, really trying to pinpoint exactly where they’ve been, at what time,” Dr Smith said.

“That’s not going to be possible.

“It won’t also be as necessary when we get more and more cases.”

He said the aim would be to reduce the burden of disease and substantially reduce the likelihood of spread, “but there will be cases and transition events that slip through the cracks”.

QIMR Berghofer Medical Research modelling that informed Queensland’s roadmap to reopening found the peak of Queensland’s outbreak was projected in August 2022.

Mass testing turnouts have been the norm during previous outbreaks. Picture: David Clark

More than 100 people are expected to die within the first three months, but how quickly the state’s hospital system hits peak stress levels will depend in part on how many regional Queenslanders are fully vaccinated.

There would be between 1000 and 2000 infections in the first 90 days once the state reopened borders.

There would also be between 250 and 500 people who need to be cared for in intensive care, with 100 to 150 of those people – mostly older than 65 – likely to die.

The modelling conceded people may be less likely to continue to be tested and may be unwilling to isolate once there are high levels of vaccination.

Originally published as How contact tracing will change once Queensland borders reopen