When will Anthony Albanese call the 2025 Australian Federal Election?
The first choice the PM needs to make is whether to allow parliament to go ahead as scheduled for the first two weeks of February or to visit the Governor-General to call the election.
Opinion
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Every three years we play the great election date guessing game. But this time there’s a twist — will we get a Federal Budget before we vote?
Anthony Albanese can choose any Saturday between now and May 17, and as he begins his re-election roadshow this week, speculation is in overdrive about what date he will choose and whether the budget, scheduled for March 25, will go ahead.
But there are only a handful of real options spread over the next 130 days.
The prime minister asked his MPs to get feedback, especially in battleground seats, as he weighs up his choices to pick the date he thinks would most work to his advantage.
Labor has a razor-thin majority to protect, and pollsters and others involved in the dark art of assessing the public mood believe a minority government is the most likely result. It could even be one led by Peter Dutton.
The government’s dream scenario and the wildcard would be the Reserve Bank cutting interest rates. The RBA board meets on February 18, April 1 and May 20. Experts have mixed views and getting this right could be the PM’s biggest gamble.
Once Albanese names the date, the writs are issued and the mechanics require 33 days until polling day.
The first choice the PM needs to make is whether to allow parliament to go ahead as scheduled for the first two weeks of February or to visit Governor-General Sam Mostyn to call the election. There has never been a federal election in January or February as that would interrupt sacred summer holidays.
Might Albanese break convention and surprise us all by ending the guessing game — and catching almost everybody off guard — by calling an unlikely poll in mid-January for February 22? That would cut short the advantage of incumbency.
The attraction of a March election is made difficult by the Western Australian state election scheduled for March 8, which is also a long weekend in the southern half of the country, while March 15 clashes with the Formula 1 Grand Prix. March 29 and April 5 are a possibility, especially if there’s a February rate cut.
April 12 is emerging as a red hot option as the WA election would be over on the weekend it needs to be called. That scenario would allow for parliament to be dissolved without having a budget. This is favoured by many in the government’s ranks who fear the fanfare highlighting the deteriorating state of the budget amid a weak economy would hurt re-election chances.
The Mid-Year Budget update before Christmas revealed a $22 billion worsening of projected deficits over the next four years but also set aside $5.5 billion for “decisions taken but not announced” that it can roll out as election sweeteners.
If he waits any longer he will have to deliver another budget as there’s no chance of an election on April 19 or 26 due to a later than usual Easter then Anzac Day commemorations.
The final window is May 3, 10 or 17. Albanese has always said three years is too short a period and he would go full term. He may wait, hoping fortune will turn in his favour.
A May election means the PM will hope the budget will serve as a springboard for election promises, aided, perhaps, by taxpayer-funded resources and advertising.
Whether we get the first-ever February poll, vote in April for the first time since 1951 or have a more conventional March or May election, by June it should all be settled — unless there is an intractable Hung parliament.
Phillip Hudson is Director of Government Relations, Australia, for Bondi Partners
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