US election: Why this is Donald Trump’s race to lose

While the size of Donald Trump’s crowds are waning, Kamala Harris’ rallies are bursting with enthusiasm. Despite her inexperience, she has looked comfortable and confident, while he has been increasingly erratic, writes Tom Minear.

ANALYSIS

Every four years, the first Tuesday of November brings two historic contests in two different hemispheres. Unlike the Melbourne Cup, of course, the American presidential election is a two-horse race. But picking a winner this time feels as difficult as it does in a 24-horse field.

This really is Donald Trump’s race to lose. Voters are broadly unhappy with soaring inflation, illegal immigration and wars in Europe and the Middle East. They are unsure about Kamala Harris, a historically unpopular vice president who has had only 106 days to campaign. And their alternative is a former president who heroically survived an assassination attempt.

\Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump dances on stage after speaking at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Picture: AFP

The fact that Mr Trump is essentially tied in the polls with Ms Harris is seen by Republicans as evidence he will win. After all, he trailed by wide margins on the eve of the 2016 and 2020 elections, only to win the first and almost the second. Mr Trump is now tipping a landslide.

At the same time, however, he is also ramping up his claims about cheating, most notably in a dark rant about the “demonic” and “corrupt” Democrats the weekend before the election.

If the 78-year-old truly believed he would win, wouldn’t he want voters to trust the results?

That opens up the possibility that Mr Trump thinks the momentum is no longer moving in his favour.

Donald Trump, for all his flaws, is still so hard to beat, writes Tom Minear. Picture: AFP

The Vice President, meanwhile, is happily claiming that it is flowing in her direction.

Her team thinks she is successfully reclaiming some of Mr Trump’s hard-won gains with young men and Black and Hispanic voters. Even more importantly, they believe women are surging to support her, a crucial advantage given women vote in larger numbers than men.

Campaign signs are seen on a tree near Philadelphia City Call on November 04. Picture: Getty Images via AFP

This was laid bare in a shock poll that put Ms Harris up by three percentage points in Iowa, a state Mr Trump has won twice before which was not thought to be up for grabs this year.

Pollsters have recently been accused of manipulating their research to produce close results to avoid any post-election embarrassment. The Iowa survey – by one of America’s most respected pollsters – is so extreme that it perhaps represents what they have been missing.

There are other anecdotal indicators of momentum. The size of Mr Trump’s prized crowds are waning, while Ms Harris’s rallies are bursting with enthusiasm. Despite her inexperience, she has looked comfortable and confident, while he has been increasingly erratic.

But the Vice President’s team maintains she is the underdog. They say they are only “nauseously optimistic”, and with good reason. Mr Trump, for all his flaws, is still so hard to beat.