Tim Blair: It is now easy to win a state election thanks to border closures

Treat ’em mean and keep ’em keen — state governments have discovered they can lock in re-election victories by locking down their people and smashing economies, writes Tim Blair.

Winning state elections in Australia was once a complicated business.

All manner of strategies and tactics would be designed and deployed. Millions would be spent during weeks of campaigning. Competing considerations would be analysed and balanced against each other in pursuit of votes.

Not any more.

If you’re in government and wish to remain there, state elections have become absurdly simple.

Just lock your borders, shut down your cities and paralyse your economies, then sit back and watch those votes come rolling in.

Queensland used to have a tourism industry until Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk took matters into her own hands. Picture: Peter Wallis

It worked in Queensland, which used to have a tourism industry and now has a third term Labor government led by Annastacia Palaszczuk.

It’s working in the death state of Victoria, where Premier Daniel Andrews is said to be coasting on a 55-45 two-party advantage despite doing everything in his power to ­destroy the place.

And it’s going to work for Western Australian Labor leader Mark McGowan, who a few weeks ago placed two million people under house arrest following a solitary coronavirus case.

According to last week’s Newspoll, WA Labor now leads the Liberal Party by 68 per cent to 32 on a two-party preferred basis.

If those figures are replicated next month the Labor government would achieve a support boost of beyond 12 per cent. The Liberals could end up with just two seats — which might be two more than they deserve.

West Australian Premier Mark McGowan launched his re-election campaign on Sunday. Picture: NCA NewsWire /Philip Gostelow

Inexperienced opposition leader Zak Kirkup is campaigning on climate change. Picture: Colin Murty

Obviously unable to demonstrate his lockdown capabilities from opposition, young Liberal leader Zak Kirkup has instead decided to duplicate Bill Shorten’s losing move from the 2019 federal poll.

Apparently unaware that this has never previously worked, he’s campaigning on climate. Kirkup has brought global warming to a coronavirus fight.

Under the Libs, WA would close its coal-fired power plants within four years in a pointless quest to reach zero net emissions by 2030. Way to go, Greta.

Besides Liberal incompetence, McGowan has another great advantage. Thanks to a surge in iron ore prices, he’s been able to act all tough on COVID while his state suffers minimal economic harm.

In any reasonable era, however, McGowan could still be expected to take a hit for his goofy border closures and hysterical single-infection ­over-reaction.

But these are no normal times. Millions of Australians have evidently become lockdown-lovin’ losers.

Victorian Premier Dan Andrews has played a big part in millions of Australians becoming lockdown-loving losers. Picture : NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

And in response to what? Remove Victoria from the national statistics and we’ve only lost 89 people to the coronavirus. That’s about the average number of coastal drownings around Australia every year.

On average, more Americans are struck by lightning every year than Australians outside Victoria have died from COVID.

Restriction enthusiasts may claim that our low COVID death rate is entirely due to lockdowns and other economy-smashing measures.

But if that were so, then NSW — the state least inclined towards hard lockdowns, while taking in the most overseas arrivals — would be the nation’s coronavirus capital. We’d be the New York City of the southern ­hemisphere.

Even though coronavirus vaccinations have now commenced in Australia, very few state politicians and politicised medical officials outside of NSW are talking in clear terms about an end to lockdowns and closures.

Victorian chief health officer Brett Sutton last week hinted at a reduced likelihood of lockdowns, but also played this card: “There are circumstances where you need to pull out other tools; a short sharp lockdown or a circuit breaker.”

Victoria's Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Geraghty

This is why so many people are now avoiding Victoria, even when borders are open and the place is recording no new cases.

There remains every chance that another case or two in Melbourne will again shut Victoria down.

To a lesser extent the same goes for Western Australia and Queensland, another state that entered hard lockdown following a single positive coronavirus result.

How are businesses meant to plan anything when at short notice they may be ordered to close? And why would any business take on extra staff when it is impossible to plan for events even mere days in advance?

Meanwhile, thousands of Melbourne residents who obviously reject the spectre of future lockdowns are on the move.

Population Minister Alan Tudge noted last December that for the first time in a decade there was “now evidence that people are leaving Victoria and Melbourne in particular” following the long second lockdown.

Reports last week revealed 16,000 people left Melbourne in six months last year, reversing a 20-year growth trend.

Perhaps some of those Victorians headed for Western Australia, so they can gaze in awe at the only state Liberal Party that is weaker and less able than their own.