Those who still see Matthew Guy as a viable replacement look to Jeff Kennett’s record as losing two elections before finally winning government
Mutterings about Brad Battin’s leadership have evolved into open conversations among colleagues, with Matthew Guy touted as a potential replacement.
Opinion
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The parliamentary winter break starts next week and gives both Jacinta Allan and Brad Battin the chance to take stock.
While many MPs will take a breather or, there can be no cruises, holidays, or down time, for either leader.
Because both, to varying degrees, are staring down the barrel of a leadership gunfight should they fail to emerge from the break without a solid plan for winning next year’s election.
For months there have been murmurings of unhappiness inside the Labor caucus, with a small but united faction of the view a leadership change is needed to remove Allan and the unavoidable link to Daniel Andrews and his administration that she brings.
Labor’s surprise thumping win in May’s federal election did a lot to quell the disquiet, in part because of Allan’s efforts to frame that as a tacit endorsement of Victorian Labor and her own government.
But some senior Labor people are still firmly exploring ways in which a change could come about, even if the task is much harder than it was two months ago.
Allan has undergone a significant rebrand, is being much more warmly received at public events, and is cementing a legislative agenda she can call her own.
The Big Build infrastructure is still there – and she will capitalise on that providing she can get the long-awaited Metro Tunnel and West Gate Tunnel opened as planned by the end of the year and without further budget blowouts – but she has focused efforts on appealing more widely to community concerns particularly relating to crime.
Senior business leaders are now actively planning for the re-election of a Labor government, with Allan at the helm, while Labor powerbrokers concede that if she can hold it together until November, her position will be safe.
Roads, debt and the health system remain major stumbling blocks that she has shown no ability to overcome.
Neither has Opposition Leader Brad Battin, whose Liberals remain all protest and no plan.
Save for their promise to wipe five major taxes if elected to government – without any explanation of how they will plug the multibillion-dollar budget hole that would create – there is little in the way of a policy agenda that is right now offering Victorians a realistic alternative to Labor.
In recent weeks mutterings about Battin’s leadership have evolved into open conversations among colleagues.
Chief among his challenges is the ongoing war between John Pesutto and Moira Deeming: a problem he inherited but in which he has now become a key player.
Battin has been quietly working to bring the issue to a head and orchestrate a deal that would see Pesutto loaned the estimated $1.5m he needs to clear his $2.3m debt to Deeming.
In doing that, Liberals say he agreed to an 11th-hour offer by the Deeming camp to green-light her guaranteed preselection, in exchange for her stalling bankruptcy proceedings that could force Pesutto out of parliament and trigger a dangerous Hawthorn by-election.
To say this has sent both colleagues and party members apoplectic would be to severely underplay the situation, as futile as it may have been.
The party’s administrative committee is believed to have the numbers to on Thursday endorse a plan to offer Pesutto a secured loan.
But that is proving to be a sticking point, with sources close to Pesutto saying he is not in a position to guarantee the loan.
It will leave him with a week to find the $1.5m he needs or face the real risk of bankruptcy.
Which will make settling the party’s civil war even harder for Battin.
He knows a key task is to build a functional truce.
The electorate won’t back a party at war with itself.
Some have suggested he pull Pesutto into a more senior role, should he manage to remain in parliament, to serve that purpose.
Others warn it would have the complete opposite effect.
For a party that spends more time fighting each other than fighting Labor, the bitter factional feuds have been too much for most leaders to overcome.
Only Matthew Guy in recent history has been able to keep the troops united, which is perhaps why his name is routinely now being mentioned by colleagues as a potential replacement for Battin should the need arise.
Those who still see Guy as a viable replacement look to Jeff Kennett’s record as losing two elections before finally winning government.
Battin must also craft a compelling vision around a narrative of what a Liberal-led Victoria would look like.
What’s the long-term plan for housing? For transport? For energy transition? For regional revival?
The next election can’t be just a referendum on Labor debt — it must be a pitch for a different, more confident Victoria.
Battin’s leadership has failed to excite colleagues and members in his first six months, and he needs to emerge with a plan that sees the party look like a government-in-waiting.
If he fails, he’ll be just another name on the long list of Liberal leaders who couldn’t last, and wouldn’t win.
Originally published as Those who still see Matthew Guy as a viable replacement look to Jeff Kennett’s record as losing two elections before finally winning government
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