The loser mentality has set in and created a psychological roadblock to a belief that the Liberals can one day govern again

Too many opposition MPs are resigned to the fact that as we draw nearer to the election the prospect of occupying the treasury benches moves further away.

The Victorian Liberal Party has become its own worst enemy.

Forget the constant infighting, the factional games, their tendency to eat themselves, and their inability to unite and convince the electorate they can be a viable government.

What’s more damaging is the loser mentality that has set in that has created a psychological roadblock to a belief that they can one day govern again.

Among too few of the current crop of Liberals, both within the party room and among the broader member base, is a winning mentality.

Opposition Leader Brad Battin has it, as did John Pesutto, Matthew Guy and Michael O’Brien before him.

It would be hard to lead the party without a vision for victory.

But outside of that too many MPs are resigned to the fact that as we draw nearer to the election the prospect of occupying the treasury benches moves further away.

Brad Battin is one of the few Liberals with a winning mentality. Picture: Valeriu Campan

And without critical self-belief, Liberals go-to is to go each other.

Take the current threat of new legal action, in which members of the party’s administrative committee are seeking to prosecute a case against other members of that committee in the Supreme Court.

It comes after cases brought by Moira Deeming, Kellie Kay Keen and Angie Jones, an ongoing unfair dismissal claim brought by former staffer Nadine Jones that could be more explosive than the Deeming case and the threat of IBAC investigations into the $1.55m Pesutto loan affair.

When Liberals feel they have nothing to gain, they become emboldened by the idea they also have nothing to lose.

And yet, the idea that they can’t win next year’s election is nonsense.

The Moira Deeming-John Pesutto saga has led to court action and could spark an IBAC investigation. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

The Coalition needs to win 16 seats at next year’s election, and lose none, to form government.

Wind the clock back to 1992 – Jeff Kennett picked up 19 seats to wrestle government from Joan Kirner’s Labor, with its eerie similarities to the existing political landscape with a statewide 8 per cent swing against the government.

In 1982, John Cain won 17 seats on the back of a 4.2 per cent swing to beat Lindsay Thompson for the top job, ending 27 years of Liberal government.

A seat-by-seat analysis of both elections shows that in neither did a seat with a margin greater than 7.2 per cent change hands. That was despite massive double-digit swings in some seats.

If a similar trend were followed next year, the Coalition would pick up 14 seats that currently have margins of 7.2 per cent or less.

If it got very lucky, it could pick up further two – Ringwood with has a 7.5 per cent margin, and Monbulk, which is on 7.6 per cent.

But there are currently 16 seats with margins under 8 per cent that history suggests could be in play.

There are some notable differences to those previous elections.

First is voting trends, which have changed considerably since 1982, when just 11.66 per cent of votes went to minor parties or independents.

By 1992, about 17 per cent of the vote was not with the majors – 10 per cent with minors and 7.3 per cent with independents.

Fast-forward to the last election and a third of all votes went to minor parties and independents, with the flow of preferences crucial in getting Labor over the line.

This is a problem the Coalition must face head-on or it will remain in opposition for a long time.

The second major difference is the political landscape.

In 1982, the Liberals had been in government for 27 years. Voters were tired, and Cain’s Labor Party didn’t so much win as the Liberals lost – through stagnation, arrogance and the sheer weight of incumbency.

But Cain’s Labor looked ready to govern. The current Liberal opposition doesn’t look like a government-in-waiting – they look like a party still trying to find the waiting room.

In 1992, after a decade in the wilderness, the Liberals roared back to power under Kennett. The state was broke, Labor was spent, unpopular, and in crisis.

Sounds familiar, no? Kennett offered energy, a plan, and crucially, a sense of control.

This is the missing piece for the current Coalition.

The Allan government is grappling with ballooning debt, faltering infrastructure projects, a health system in crisis and growing voter fatigue.

Voters are looking elsewhere, but are coming up short.

In 1992, the alternative was clear, loud and unmissable, but today it’s still forming in the fog. Battin has been forced to spend too much time steadying the ship internally than preparing to charge into battle.

While Labor builds a narrative – albeit one many voters don’t like with a renewed focus on treaty, a Voice and big spending – the Liberals still seem trapped in reactive mode, defined more by what they oppose than what they offer.

Battin has been forced to spend too much time steadying the ship internally than preparing to charge into battle. Picture: Nadir Kinani

Voters don’t hand over government just because the pendulum is due.

They do it when they’re convinced the alternative is better, sharper, more disciplined – and ready.

If the Victorian Liberals want 2026 to be their year, they’ll need more than nostalgia.

They’ll need a vision and a reason for voters to believe it.

And a healthy dose of self-belief, too.

Originally published as The loser mentality has set in and created a psychological roadblock to a belief that the Liberals can one day govern again