Sharri Markson: Turnbull can’t run from this verdict
THERE’s no escaping that today’s Bennelong by-election will be a verdict on Malcolm Turnbull’s government.
Opinion
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THERE’s no escaping that today’s Bennelong by-election will be a verdict on Malcolm Turnbull’s government.
A loss would be devastating for Turnbull’s personal leadership prospects while reducing his authority and ability to pass legislation on the floor of the house.
Should the Liberals lose, the contingency plan is for independent Indi MP Cathy McGowan to step in as Speaker, with Tony Smith returning to the floor. It would only be a matter of time until the Prime Minister’s rivals come knocking.
On the flip side, given the Turnbull government has trailed Labor in 24 Newspolls, even a narrow win in Bennelong would be grounds for celebration to the Liberals, though the victory would be subdued by the humiliation of Turnbull having to rely on preferences from long-term arch-enemy, defector Cory Bernardi.
If there is a win today, it will take a little while for the reality to sink in. A 9 per cent swing against the Liberal Party in Bennelong, if replicated at a federal election, would wipe out between 35 and 41 seats.
Even a small swing of 4 per cent would deliver Labor majority government, with 21 seats changing hands.
So while Turnbull has tried to turn Bennelong into a referendum on Kristina Keneally’s (poor) record as premier, it is his government and his leadership that will be judged today.
And that’s why the Liberals poured close to $1 million into this by-election compared with Labor’s $250,000 spend, which was, of course, bolstered by a union campaign.
The biggest unknown factor is how deeply the significant Chinese community have been offended by new foreign interference laws, the campaign against Sam Dastyari and Turnbull’s rhetoric on Chinese influence in Australian politics.
As for Keneally, she will end up in Canberra one way or the other. The question is whether she takes Dastyari’s vacant Senate seat or whether her ambition for future leadership is so great that she would rather wait to run again at the next federal election.