Sharri Markson: Power politics are playing out behind closed doors of Coalition
Party-room disquiet over the National Energy Guarantee is more than just agitation from the so-called ‘Abbott camp’ and the PM must watch the NEG is not his undoing.
Opinion
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IT was with triumph in his step that Malcolm Turnbull strode into the prime ministerial courtyard to announce he had won support in the Coalition party room for his energy policy.
In media reports, it was pitched as a victory for the Prime Minister and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg, with only nine MPs threatening to cross the floor on the issue, and the PM holding one-on-one meetings to win them over.
But the reality is utterly different. The energy policy has thrown the Prime Minister into his own world of woe and there are now live discussions about his leadership.
Conservative MPs have lost confidence Turnbull can take the Liberal Party to victory, with no change in policy direction weeks after Longman’s unwinnable primary vote of 30 per cent in the by-election.
Worse, they’re losing hope they can win the election at all, despite a narrow two-point difference in Newspoll’s two-party-preferred vote.
In reference to Turnbull’s refusal to change course on energy or immigration, one MP said: “If the Prime Minister doesn’t want to win, why should any of us go over the cliff with him?”
Some centre-right MPs say the Liberal Party should fall over the cliff, cleanse and then rebuild from opposition in a more conservative mould.
Others are in favour of a leadership change, but most of this group are far from definitive about which leader would improve their political fortunes.
There is also concern the transactional cost of changing leader may outweigh any benefits.
Those backing Turnbull insist he has his finger on the suicide-bomb trigger, meaning if there was a successful leadership spill he would quit politics entirely, causing a by-election in Wentworth.
Others say if this occurred there is the possibility of asking the Governor-General to delay a by-election until polling day if it’s less than six months away.
In the case of a leadership change, Peter Dutton is emerging as the strongest contender.
Some MPs question whether the no-nonsense Queensland MP has any X-factor qualities and are concerned he may be less popular than Turnbull in Victoria and NSW.
But a conservative grouping are urging him to seize the leadership — and soon.
A number of MPs are encouraging Dutton to move in the next few weeks, off the back of a policy platform on cheaper energy and lower immigration.
Colleagues claim Dutton has raised concerns about the National Energy Guarantee and its political ramifications in Cabinet.
For now, Dutton has not made a decision about what to do and is still supporting Turnbull. But his comments on Ray Hadley’s 2GB radio program yesterday morning were incredibly telling and cannot be underestimated.
He did not stridently argue the case for Turnbull or his signature energy policy, instead describing the National Energy Guarantee as the “best policy available to us”. What a defence!
Further, instead of helping Turnbull escape from the most difficult policy pickle he has found himself in to date, Dutton said that if Hadley had a blue with Alan Jones, he’d battle it out off-air — and that it’s the same situation within government.
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“I’m not going to be a part of the Cabinet and then bag the Prime Minister out,” he said.
The blatant and only interpretation: Dutton disagrees with Turnbull’s energy policy and they have had a blue behind closed doors.
Then, landing a third blow against the Prime Minister, Dutton extraordinarily laid the path for what he would do if he no longer agreed with Turnbull.
“Now, if my position changes — that is, it gets to a point where I can’t accept what the government’s proposing or I don’t agree — then the Westminster system is very clear; you resign your commission, you don’t serve in that Cabinet, and you make that very clear in a respectful way,” he said.
It cannot be overstated just how explosive it is that one of the most senior ministers in the Turnbull government publicly mentioned the possibility of resigning from Cabinet.
And when Hadley suggested there should be a leadership change, Dutton did not defend Turnbull. Not once. Whack again!
This is simply stunning and sensational stuff.
Media commentators dismiss conservative agitation against Turnbull as just being from the “Abbott camp”. This is naive.
Many of the MPs who have major concerns with Turnbull are not Abbott supporters.
It also reflects the attitude of the left-leaning Canberra press gallery that they turn their noses up to conservative concerns over the Paris emissions targets, because it’s an ideological position they disagree with.
The size of the group who want to move on from Turnbull may be small, but it could easily gather force.
Remember, Dutton’s and Mathias Cormann’s support for Turnbull has kept the Right faction in step behind the Prime Minister. And in many respects, Turnbull has delivered for both Dutton and Cormann. The relationship has been mutually beneficial.
Dutton was handed the new portfolio of Home Affairs, while Cormann has immense strategic power, with the policy purity over big-business company tax cuts the clearest example.
Now many of the Right faction are discussing moving away from Turnbull’s policy over energy, irrespective of Dutton and Cormann’s support for the PM.
The momentum is building. And so is the pressure on Dutton to stand up and lead them in a move against Turnbull who, for the past two years, he has stood beside, shoulder-to-shoulder, as confidante and protector.