Sharri Markson: Is 2020 the year for a cabinet reshuffle?
As Scott Morrison emerges from the pandemic stronger than ever, some Liberal sources are saying a cabinet shuffle may be imminent, writes Sharri Markson.
Opinion
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The last prime minister to enjoy as long a period of stable leadership as Scott Morrison was John Howard.
Since Morrison took the reins from Malcolm Turnbull in August 2018, his transformation into a revered Liberal leader commanding authority over his party is indisputable.
Serious disunity, while always lurking around the corner, has for two years been latent, not disturbing Morrison’s prime ministership.
The unexpected election win gave him crucial gravitas and respect he lacked as treasurer, while his handling of COVID-19 has reinforced his party’s confidence in his ability to govern the country soundly.
Australia’s success in keeping infections and deaths relatively low is attributable in no small part to Morrison’s judgment.
By responding to the coronavirus so decisively, he addressed his leadership weakness over the summer bushfire months.
Significantly, Morrison has also showed his team that, despite his natural tendency for arrogance, he is willing to learn from his mistakes.
He proved his global leadership credentials in his early call for an inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, before successfully lobbying leaders around the world to support it.
Leading calls for an international inquiry would have been a role well-suited to the British Prime Minister, who was indisposed in hospital, or the US president, who has been fighting his own battles.
It was an unprecedented diplomatic success for Australia, elevating Morrison on the international stage.
Morrison has been deliberate in two other ways that has kept his leadership stable.
Firstly, he defends his MPs when they’re under siege, such as Angus Taylor and Gladys Liu, showing he’s happy to take a bullet for them — as long as it’s not fatal.
Secondly, while there are times the government has had to walk on eggshells, Morrison does not muzzle MPs or force them to stick to official Liberal Party policy.
As is fairly evident from my Sky News program, Liberal backbenchers have more freedom to speak on issues than their Labor colleagues. The topics of China and superannuation are two examples.
Now, as restrictions lift and Morrison emerges from crisis mode, senior Liberal sources say early discussions are taking place about whether 2020 is the year for a cabinet reshuffle.
The discussions are not well advanced, but they are certainly happening at a senior level, with the Prime Minister speaking to his closest confidantes about the timing of a potential reshuffle.
The most likely timing discussed for a cabinet refresh is after the Federal Budget in October however there is also a small window after the Eden Monaro by-election.
There are some senior figures urging Morrison to shift Peter Dutton from his beloved Home Affairs portfolio in a potential reshuffle and “promote” him to Defence, replacing Linda Reynolds.
If David Coleman decides not to return to Canberra, Morrison will need to decide on a permanent replacement for the immigration portfolio.
It is understood Mathias Cormann’s departure is looking more likely later this year after the budget, which he is involved in as Finance Minister.
Cormann has strongly denied plans to leave politics when speculation has surfaced in the past, but he is not denying it now. He is declining to comment about his future and whether he is leaving this year, including whether he has accepted a role at the OECD.
A Liberal MP said Cormann has been to-ing and fro-ing on his political future for some time now.
“There’s been speculation about Mathias going for a fair period of time which hasn’t transpired so it’s left everybody confused about what his intentions are,” he said.
“The logical person to move up into the leadership role when he does go is Simon Birmingham.”
Turnbull has acknowledged it was a mistake to include Dutton and Cormann in his praetorian guard.
When it came to the crunch, they were not there to truly protect him as PM.
It’s extraordinary now to reflect on how Turnbull sought Dutton and Cormann’s counsel on all manner of policy areas to keep them close.
This infuriated Morrison during federal budget preparations when, as Treasurer, he had his plans overruled by the pair, particularly when Dutton did not hold a treasury portfolio.
This resulted in a front page in The Daily Telegraph with an angry looking Morrison demanding, “Give me Back My Budget.”
It was a front page that infuriated Morrison even more than the budget powerplay. Now, Morrison is clear-eyed about his rivals. He won’t repeat Turnbull’s mistakes and has elevated factional allies and trusted confidants into key positions to keep them close.
Stuart Robert is in cabinet as NDIS Minister, Alex Hawke is International Development and the Pacific Minister while Ben Morton is the Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister and Cabinet, giving him a legitimate reason to be in Canberra to advise Morrison.
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But this is what conservative Liberals now fear the most: that if Cormann leaves politics, it will be factional heavyweight Hawke who benefits through an elevation to cabinet.
While this would cause factional unrest, those close to the Prime Minister remind him that Dutton and Cormann cannot be trusted, and he needs to keep his supporters close, particularly in the run-up to a federal election that Morrison is determined to win.
It’s fascinating to read an article Morrison wrote nearly 20 years ago for the NSW Young Liberal magazine when he was state director.
“There are no longer unlosable and unwinnable elections,” he commented. “Government will not return or remain with any Party as a matter of course.
“In short, the political contest is very much alive and always there for the taking.”
His article concluded with the rousing cry that winning government at a federal and state level was “all up for grabs — let’s get on with it.”
This belief every election can be won clearly underpins his view on politics and explains his ferocious appetite for defeating Bill Shorten in a contest most thought was over.
With Anthony Albanese struggling by the day, Morrison must presume the greatest threat to his prime ministership is from within his team.
A reshuffle in which his supporters are elevated goes a long way to securing a lengthy tenure in the top job that we haven’t seen since the Howard years.