Sharri Markson: Another Turnbull trick you can bank
MALCOLM Turnbull has once again escaped danger by the skin of his teeth, this time by shutting down rogues and Bill Shorten by calling a banking royal commission.
Opinion
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TOO many times of late, Malcolm Turnbull has found himself trapped at the end of dark alleyways. Caught at a dead-end with nowhere to turn.
But just when it seems he will be forced to spin on his heels and surrender to his enemies in a moment of reckoning, like magic a doorway appears and he slides his way through.
The Prime Minister has a remarkable ability to pull a rabbit out of a hat, whether it’s the same-sex marriage postal plebiscite or having Philip Ruddock chair a panel into religious protections.
The latest escape hatch: the banks asking for an inquiry into their own misconduct.
It’s almost inconceivable that the most powerful men in the banking sector would make such a request.
Yet Turnbull and his Treasurer Scott Morrison engineered a situation where this unfolded, a mere four days before the government would succumb to the humiliation of losing control of the floor of Parliament.
The letter from the banks to the ASX was a classic Turnbull surprise manoeuvre.
RESERVE BANK BOSS WARNED TREASURER OF ‘UNCONTROLLED’ INQUIRY
It was also a strike against rogues George Christensen and Barry O’Sullivan, who had joined forces with Opposition Leader Bill Shorten in an unlikely partnership in order to embarrass the Prime Minister.
It’s worth noting that for a man who had achieved his endgame of a royal commission, Christensen hardly appeared thrilled yesterday to be shown up by Turnbull.
It reminds me of the line from Annabel Crabb’s Quarterly Essay where she wrote that Turnbull enjoys reciting a line from the Roald Dahl story The Enormous Crocodile: “I’ve got secret plans and clever tricks!”
Clever tricks indeed.
TERRY McCRANN: BANK INQUIRY COMES WITH BIG RISK
Without that letter, holding a banking royal commission would have been a near-impossible political backflip.
But, clever tricks or not, there was no celebration about the decision. There was a sense of inevitability in Cabinet about the move and a feeling of defeat and despondency. It was the royal commission they had to have.
With Howard’s words still ringing in their ears that a royal commission is “rank socialism”, Cabinet chose the lesser of the unpalatable options available to them: control the process and the terms of reference seeing as a commission will happen anyway.
Turnbull had personally been considering holding a banking royal commission for at least a week.
He was open to the idea and there was a lengthy discussion about it in Cabinet last Tuesday, as I revealed at the time.
Scott Morrison was vehemently opposed to it.
He realised how dangerous a banking inquiry could be when Bill Shorten called for one in April 2016 and Kelly O’Dwyer, in Washington for IMF and World Bank meetings, was inundated with international officials asking her what was wrong with the Australian banking system.
BANK SHARES TAKE A HIT AFTER ANNOUNCEMENT
It was only in the past 48 hours that the Treasurer’s position changed.
On Thursday last week, Morrison met with the chairmen of the big four in separate meetings in Sydney. He continued those conversations over the phone this week.
There was a view the commission of inquiry was inevitable and under Shorten there would be no control over the terms of reference.
It would be more damaging for the financial sector and dangerous for Australia’s economy.
Morrison’s view softened after these discussions and shifted completely after he spoke to the regulator and the Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe on Wednesday night, and they warned him of the risk of not taking any action.
The letter from the banking bosses was a game-changer. It would also save face.
Morrison knew the banks were going to write a letter and the banks seem to have been aware Cabinet was meeting; the timing was co-ordinated.
Interestingly, Anna Bligh’s Australian Bankers’ Association was sidelined by the Treasurer and the banks and were not involved in any discussions on the topic.
Not only were they not consulted, Ms Bligh would have found out about the royal commission like everyone else did yesterday morning.
It’s worth remembering a banking commission was only on the agenda because Labor hadn’t referred their dual citizens to the High Court, giving selfish National MPs the red carpet to hold the government by the neck.
The Nationals will still be a problem for Turnbull.
In the wake of the Queensland election, Nationals claim their brand is strong while the Liberals and the LNP brand are tarnished.
Talk of a demerger in the LNP is heating up, driven by some Nationals, although the LNP leadership deny that there is any widespread appetite for a split.
Barnaby Joyce is set to return to Canberra bolshier than when he left, especially if as predicted, his primary in tomorrow’s by-election is in the high fifties — stronger than his 52 per cent at the last election.
While Turnbull has succeeded in buying the peace for the final week of Parliament of the year, he needs to work out how to avoid the dead-end alleyways in the first place.
He needs to seize back control of the political and parliamentary agenda, and set it.
This would also help to extinguish the constant leadership speculation.
As a Liberal MP said to me yesterday about leadership options: “It’s like old Mother Hubbard, the cupboard is bare. Dutto is unpopular, we can’t have Bishop, we can’t have ScoMo, we can’t have back-to-the-future Abbott.
“This slow train wreck is not going to end on Tuesday but it’s not going to end well.”