Sharri Markson analysis on Sydney counter-terrorism raids: Turnbull balancing risk with need for evidence

WHEN Malcolm Turnbull was alerted to an “imminent” plot to smuggle an improvised explosive device onto a plane in Sydney causing mass casualties, there was a major decision to be made.

Sharri Markson. Picture: Justin Lloyd

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WHEN Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull was alerted to an “imminent” plot in which terrorists planned to smuggle an improvised explosive device onto a plane in Sydney, causing mass casualties, there was a major decision to be made.

Police could raid homes of the suspects that very night, with public safety the top priority­. Or police could wait and allow the plot to unravel as much as possible, to learn just how extensive the alleged terror­ network ran and whether it was being directed by Islamic­ terrorists offshore.

Waiting posed a grave risk.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull briefs the media alongside AFP Commissioner Andrew Colvin following the Sydney raids. Picture: AAP

Senior government sources said there was the need to balance­ the top priority of public­ safety with being able to carry out the operation long enough to uncover how big the network might be.

Intelligence agencies had been monitoring those involved for a while. By last week, the intent to take action became apparent.

Late on Wednesday, Mr Turnbull was told for the first time of a live plot to bring down a domestic plane in Sydney. If not thwarted, it would be a mass casualty attack reminiscent­ of 9/11. Unlike anything Australia has seen.

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The PM and senior leaders were forced to balance the priority of public safety with being able to carry out the operation long enough to uncover how big the network might be. Picture: Jeremy Piper

Unlike recent “lone wolf” attacks, this was a suspected Islamist­-inspired terror network or cell, with possible links to terror networks overseas.

At a National Security Committee meeting on Thursday, Mr Turnbull and senior ministers urgently bolstered security measures at Sydney Airport. The next few days would be a constant stream of meetings with security agency heads, ministers, the AFP Commissioner Andrew Colvin and NSW Police.

Australian Federal Police Commissioner Andrew Colvin advised the PM security forces were dealing with an “imminent” threat. Picture: AAP

By Saturday, three days after Mr Turnbull was alerted to the plot, the alleged plans were considered­ too “imminent”.

It was time to move.

In Saturday’s raids, sources said “significant material” was found, including materials that could be used to make an explosive device. A device that if used midair would cause the most physical and mental damage possible. Authorities are now actively investigating how closely aligned the Sydney network is with Islamic extremist­ networks offshore.