Shannon Deery: Latest polling sounds alarm bells for Jacinta Allan kills off John Pesutto leadership challenge

More than 250,000 Victorians who voted for Labor at the 2022 election now say they won’t again. The latest polling puts John Pesutto in the driver’s seat to lead Victoria — provided he can keep his party together.

• Vic Libs overtake Labor first time in seven years

The latest polling will mean panic stations at Labor HQ.

For the first time in seven years the ALP is trailing the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis, 51 to 49, while its primary vote has bottomed out to 30 per cent.

That’s 7 per cent lower than at the 2022 election, meaning 253,00 people who voted for Labor then have no plans to do it again in 2026.

In the same time, the Coalition has picked up about 200,000 voters, based on its primary shifting from 34 to 40.

Fatigue has set in around Premier Jacinta Allan’s government. Picture: Tamati Smith.

Jacinta Allan will be wondering this morning just what she can do to reverse what has emerged as a stable trend of Labor voters fleeing Labor.

Pollsters say cost of living concerns are driving resentment against the government, which is being blamed for not doing enough to help struggling Victorians.

At the same time debt is soaring, billions of dollars is being pumped into the Suburban Rail Loop and Victorians are funding the Scottish Commonwealth Games.

Government fatigue has set in, and there is a visceral anger toward Daniel Andrews, pollsters say, who is blamed for all that is wrong with Victoria.

The Premier, by extension, is paying the price for her connection to him and failure to extricate herself from his shadow.

Allan might argue that hers is a first-term government, now just in its second year.

But Victorians see it clearly as a tired third-term government, and Allan a mere substitute for Andrews, pollsters say.

At the same time, Opposition Leader John Pesutto will be positively buoyant today.

He has had his political life flash before his eyes in recent days, with a handful of colleagues promising to challenge his leadership next week.

John Pesutto is in an election winning position. Picture: Mark Stewart

Those plans were being described as “dead” well before this latest polling was released.

The poll should all but kill them, giving Pesutto a chance to regroup, assess the way he operates and address his party room critics.

With the Coalition now in the lead, the election — albeit two years away — is theirs to lose.

Allan’s task should be much harder: she has to turn the ship around and convince Victorians that they will benefit from a fourth term in office.

Pesutto just needs to keep his party room together long enough to make it to 2026.

But that might be the hardest challenge of all.

Originally published as Shannon Deery: Latest polling sounds alarm bells for Jacinta Allan kills off John Pesutto leadership challenge