Shannon Deery: Coalition MPs convinced by polls to expect election day success
Coalition members were so sure of an election win that advanced planning was underway for their first day in office, with some staff even told they would no longer be needed.
Opinion
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Days out from election day, the Victorian Liberal Party started planning to form government.
So convinced were they of winning, based on their polling, that the party was trying to make arrangements to transition to government on Sunday morning.
Key MPs had been told the polls showed the Coalition would be in a position to form government, and staff went about setting for their first day in office.
Planning was so advanced, some staff had been told precisely what roles they would be playing under Premier Guy.
Others were told they would not be required in the Premier’s office.
Matthew Guy, according to several sources, had already hand-picked a chief of staff.
As one senior Liberal familiar with the plan said on Monday: “they were living in a fantasy land.”
Of course we now know the Liberals were never in the race.
Despite predictions from multiple pollsters of a close contest, it was game over by 9.30 on Saturday night.
The pain is just beginning for the party.
It’s second successive election drubbing should spark fierce bloodletting and a wide-ranging review into the party.
It faces an existential crisis – to rebuild or die.
“The time for complete and utter renewal of the Party has arrived. Make no mistake, the deadwood needs to go and if they don’t then will need to be removed,” one senior Liberal said.
“The Liberal Party (has) a clear choice. Either renew, rebuild and head towards the centre ground of politics or move further to the fringes of society.
“Elections are won in the middle by engaging with the mainstream and not pandering to the worst elements of our society …
“The leadership team that drove this party over the cliff needs to recede quietly into the background.”
The party’s inability to seriously engage with multicultural communities, middle Australia and Millennials is considered key to its problem.
It failed to gain ground in Melbourne’s east and southeast where it saw its road to recovery.
In the west, despite big swings against the government, it just couldn’t compete with well entrenched margins in Labor’s heartland.
But will the party act?
It was very firmly put on notice in its shocking election defeat in 2018.
Then, like this year, MPs were also told that they were “about to win” based on one night’s worth of tracking numbers.
The internal party review that followed blamed internal warfare, financial difficulties, dodgy polling, the coup against Malcolm Turnbull and a failure to sell a clear message.
On the day of the 2018 election, 17 per cent of voters did not know who Mr Guy was.
It would appear nothing has been learnt since then.
Again, this year, internal warfare, financial difficulties and dodgy polling are already being blamed.
As has the party’s inability to have timely pre-selections, develop policy or stick to key messaging.
Again this year the party failed to explain to the electorate who Guy was, and what he stood for.
Instead, his reputation was forged by a combination of the Labor Party’s depiction of him as a “cuts guy” and his alleged involvement in a donation scandal corruption probe.
The problem is far greater than Guy.
It goes to the heart of the Liberal Party’s operation which has for too long failed to read the mood of the community.
The party has been too introspective, and has made decisions based on the tone of its party room.
The 2018 Victorian election, 2021 Western Australian wipe-out, and 2022 federal election were all evidence of that.
Former Liberal spinner Tony Barry fears nothing will change.
“There needs to be a lot of soul searching in the party,” he said on ABC TV.
“We will no doubt do a review, another review. We will protect the guilty, punish the innocent and do what we always do.”
Barry read the room right: on Sunday the party’s spin machine was selling the campaign as a great success because things had been looking much worse.
On election eve senior Labor figures couldn’t see a way to majority government.
Dire predictions had them in minority, at best, but fearing a loss.
“If we had a decent opposition, it would have been game over,” one senior ALP figure said.
There’s one sure thing about elections: voters always get it right.
The Victorian election started as a referendum on Daniel Andrews and his government. It ended as a referendum on the Liberal Party and Matthew Guy.
Andrews came under attack for the state’s record debt, integrity concerns, his pandemic management and the health system.
Guy came under fire too, but it was less intense than the incumbent leader with a lengthy record.
The electorate decided Guy and his team couldn’t be trusted. On their promise to drive down debt faster than Labor. On repairing the health system better than Labor.
The loss hurts Victoria, because healthy democracies need strong oppositions.
Many Liberals are already bracing for another eight years in opposition, fearing the party won’t be government ready in 2026.
But whether the party stands any chance of forming government then, or just being a strong opposition, planning for the 2026 election should have started on Saturday night.
Shannon Deery is Herald Sun state politics editor
shannon.deery@news.com.au
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