Premier’s by-election power play hits Libs, with Minns keeping focus firmly on Mark Speakman
Unless NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman backs the winner in The Everest, he will have little to crow about come Sunday, writes James O’Doherty.
Opinion
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By-elections do not change governments, but they can kill leaders.
This is why there will be no Labor candidates on the ballot when voters go to the polls in Epping, Hornsby, and Pittwater on Saturday.
Not everyone is happy with that decision, including senior party figures that wanted to roll the dice in the seat vacated by former Premier Dominic Perrottet.
On ABC Radio this week, a disgruntled caller complained directly to Premier Chris Minns, demanding why Labor “hasn’t bothered” to put up a candidate in Epping, vacated by former Premier Dominic Perrottet.
“We made a decision in the end, that we couldn’t win it … we have to ensure that when we’ve got resources, they’re put into seats that we can actually generate a victory in,” Minns said.
Epping is exactly the kind of seat that Labor will be trying to win in 2027. They would have a good shot at claiming victory on Saturday, too, if they ran.
The real reason Labor is not running in Epping is because the Premier is hyper-focused on avoiding unnecessary risks.
Minns knows intimately how destabilising a by-election can be; it was Labor’s poor showing in Upper Hunter in 2021 that got him to where he is today, when Jodi McKay fell on her sword.
The Upper Hunter by-election was a lightning rod for caucus unease; after Labor copped a swing against its candidate, McKay ended up resigning to stem the bleeding.
To be clear, there is no threat to Minns’ leadership.
Rather, the Premier’s fear was that if Labor ran a candidate in Epping (or Hornsby, or Pittwater), any swing against the government would be seen as a backlash against the government at a time when it is already on the nose at a federal level.
That is a smart play, particularly following revelations that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese splurged $4.3 million on a clifftop mansion in Copacabana.
Liberal volunteers in Pittwater have reported that the PM’s property purchase has been “spiking” as an issue on pre-poll booths this week, with voters angry about Albanese being “out of touch”.
Instead, Minns and Labor want to keep the focus of this weekend’s by-elections firmly on Mark Speakman.
Unless Speakman backs the winner in The Everest, he will have little to crow about come Sunday.
For the Liberal leader, anything short of a clean sweep threatens to be damaging.
With Labor not turning up, victory for the Liberals’ James Wallace in Hornsby and Monica Tudehope Epping is a lay down misère.
In Pittwater, victory will be a much harder task for Liberal candidate Georgia Ryburn.
According to those in the know, the contest is looking “tight”.
Liberal research early on in the contest had Ryburn ahead, but a poll commissioned by Climate 200 from late last month had the contest at 50-50.
Even the optimists think it will be close.
According to those on the ground, early voters are not expressing great anger towards the party or to their candidate - but insiders are still being very cautious.
In 2023, teal independent Jacqui Scruby lost to Liberal Rory Amon by just 600 votes.
She is running again in the by-election sparked when Amon resigned after he was charged with 10 child sex offences, which Amon has vowed to defend.
As a comparison, when the disgraced Milton Orkopoulos resigned from the seat of Swansea after being charged with child sex and drug offences, Labor copped an 11.3 per cent swing against the party’s candidate at the following election.
Ryburn is a strong candidate, and there are plenty of Liberals who think she will go far.
But overcoming the brand damage done by serious charges levelled against Amon will be tough.
Her backers say that Ryburn has managed to create enough distance with Amon to dampen any backlash; the fact that she is a prominent female candidate is also working in the Liberals’ favour.
“If we had run a bloke it would have been an absolute train wreck,” one Liberal says.
Liberals also hope that now that the shine has come off the “Teal” movement, Scruby will appeal to fewer voters than last time.
The decision not to run candidates this weekend is a calculated political play by Minns.
It also highlights just how allergic to risk the Premier is, 18 months into his term.
That is working for Minns for now, but Labor strategists know they cannot run a small target strategy forever.
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