Premier Jacinta Allan has been unable to reverse a now ingrained downward polling trend

Victorian Labor is in a death spiral and if polling trends continue, Jacinta Allan’s government faces a catastrophic electoral wipe-out.

Victorian Labor is in a death spiral. And, if she wants to escape it, Jacinta Allan could do worse than looking across the political aisle to former Opposition leader John Pesutto.

I’ll explain. But first, a little about how bad things are for the government right now.

After 10 years in office there is a sense of fatigue that has set in among MPs, political staff, the public service and now the public.

The replacement of Daniel Andrews with Allan has done little to inject new life into the government.

Things are very bad for Jacinta Allan right now. Picture: David Geraghty

Try as she might, Allan has been unable to reverse a now ingrained downward polling trend, which has Labor’s primary vote at a catastrophic 22 per cent.

If that were to be replicated at next year’s election, the government would face the most embarrassing electoral wipe-out in Victorian history.

Polling is suggesting a 10.5 per cent swing at the ballot box.

Apply that statewide and Labor would lose more than 30 seats.

An electoral decimation of that magnitude would see its most senior ministers out of a job.

It’s not panic stations yet, but those MPs facing the prospect of losing their seats are looking to Allan for fast answers. Among them are MPs who want her to shelve the controversial Suburban Rail Loop.

Those opposed to the project view it as a dead weight, hampering the government’s ability to drive down debt and invest in key areas of health and education.

Polls show support for the project is lukewarm – and credit agencies have promised to downgrade Victoria if it pushes ahead with the project without further financial support from the Commonwealth government. That support is not forthcoming.

Indeed the Commonwealth wants Victoria to cool its jets on the SRL, which it has serious reservations about, and crack on with a more user-friendly airport rail.

And this is precisely where Allan could learn a thing or two from Pesutto. Pesutto was seen as the Victorian Liberal Party’s great hope to transform the Opposition in this state when he took the leadership in the wake of the 2022 election.

Jacinta Allan could learn a thing or two from John Pesutto. Picture: David Crosling

At the time, the party faced an existential crisis – fresh off the back of its third consecutive election loss.

He was a tiny ripple of hope for a broken party that looked to him to turn the tide.

But his obstinate crusade to expel Liberal MP Moira Deeming from the parliamentary team and engage in an ugly legal feud with her raised concerns about his political Judgement among his colleagues and the public. It also clouded any ability to lead the party effectively.

Ultimately, it led to his downfall.

Allan could be falling into the same trap with the SRL. Despite waning support for the project Allan – who launched it as public transport minister almost seven years ago – won’t budge.

At that time the state’s net debt was about $21.6bn, Victoria had a triple-A credit rating, and budget forecasts showed an operating surplus of $1.4bn in 2018-19, and an average of $2.5bn a year over the forward estimates.

After almost a term in office, and the economy in excellent health, a confident Labor announced the SRL with all the confidence and hubris of a government marching to a second term.

Labor MPs want Allan to shelve the controversial Suburban Rail Loop. Picture: Ian Currie

Things are very different today.

Victoria is racing toward $188bn in net debt, they’ve lost out triple-A credit rating, and Labor is facing a serious electoral test.

The first test will come next week at the Werribee by-election.

If Labor loses that seat – which it holds with a 10.9 per cent margin – it will force some serious soul searching.

About both the future of Labor, and of Allan. Already Labor types have begun mulling a post-Allan world.

The once inconceivable notion of changing leaders ahead of the 2026 election is now being openly discussed, if only in hushed tones.

It might not be fair to blame all of Labor’s woes on her – Allan inherited a mess from Andrews.

But she has now been leader for more than 12 months and the honeymoon period is over.

There is, of course, still time for Allan to save the sinking ship.

We are after all only halfway through the political term, and the race is a marathon not a sprint.

To underestimate the might of the Labor machine once it gears up into election mode would be a mistake equal only to underestimating the ability of the Victorian Liberal Party to own-goal its way out of office.

Time is on Allan’s side.

But money isn’t.

And with money scarce, and no ability to spend its way out of this mess, Allan’s diehard devotion to a $35bn train set might be her undoing.

Originally published as Premier Jacinta Allan has been unable to reverse a now ingrained downward polling trend