NSW government ministers avoid Upper Hunter ahead of Michael Johnsen by-election

Ministers have been told to stay out of the Upper Hunter ahead of its crucial upcoming by-election, Anna Caldwell writes.

Energy Minister Matt Kean quietly contacted the National Party this week to offer his help for the critical Upper Hunter by-election campaign.

Kean’s “help” might look a little different to the normal definition though, with the pro-renewable minister himself conceding to colleagues he might just be required to “shut up” until polling day in coal country.

The Hunter by-election is a referendum on many things, not least of all how the government’s climate policy plays in resource towns.

Labor is already targeting a coal miner to stand as its candidate.

This showdown, sparked by the resignation of Michael Johnsen under the cloud of a rape accusation he denies, will have far reaching implications.

It will determine if Berejiklian’s status in minority government is cemented. It will give an insight into the truth of what Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon has been saying about coal-country voters.

Malcolm Turnbull is the ghost of energy policy past. Picture: Terry Pontikos

And it will determine the survival of NSW opposition leader Jodi McKay.

Kean’s appointment of Malcolm Turnbull to chair his new climate board is one key factor that will loom large in the government’s “risks” column until polling day, with a horror show teaser delivered on Wednesday when the former PM took to radio to sound the death knell of coal in the Upper Hunter.

The revelation that Kean subsequently phoned Turnbull on Wednesday night and reminded him of the Government’s support for coal mining in the Upper Hunter tells us just how high the stakes are.

Already, moderate Liberal Lee Evans — who himself has a mining electorate — has broken ranks saying Kean should have appointed “anyone but Turnbull”.

Senior Liberals also claim they have witnessed party resignations as a result of the appointment.

NSW Minister for Energy and Environment Matt Kean has volunteered to help out by staying quiet. Picture: The Australian/Bianca De Marchi

Coal mining is a way of life in the Upper Hunter. And we know that Labor’s Joel Fitzgibbon learnt first hand in 2019 what an anti-mining party line buys you in the region — a 14.2 per cent primary swing in the wrong direction.

Since then, Fitzgibbon has been on a mission to correct that by taking the fight up to his own party on the importance of resource towns.

McKay said last year she believed Fitzgibbon “had a point” and you can guarantee she will be trying to mimic him in the by-election.

The 2016 census identified coal mining as the highest employment industry in the Upper Hunter electorate by a long shot.

It found 14.2 per cent of people were directly employed in the industry. That figure does not include those who are indirectly employed, which stretches the influence and the reliance further.

The NSW Minerals Council’s latest annual member expenditure survey found mining companies injected $6.2 billion into the broader Hunter economy, supporting 13,000 mining jobs and 3400 local supplier businesses.

This contributed around 28 per cent of the gross regional product in 2019-20, up from 23 per cent the previous year.

Already we know One Nation intends to frame its tilt for the seat by targeting the government over anti-coal policies.

NSW One Nation leader Mark Latham will frame the contest as the Government standing for Matt Kean and Malcolm Turnbull while One Nation stands for coal.

The Shooters Party, too, will bring their own candidate and make a serious tilt for the seat.

Deputy Premier John Barilaro is a strong supporter of mining and the Nationals will try to lean on the electorate’s trust in him as well as the popularity of Berejiklian.

Malcolm Turnbull has raised the ire of Liberals by attacking coal. Picture: NCA NewsWire/MICK TSIKASVIA

On the very day the by-election was confirmed, Barilaro found himself having to fend off the Turnbull radio incursion on Upper Hunter coal. Barilaro knows that while these comments could land well in leafy Wentworth, they are like a canary in the coal mine in the Upper Hunter.

Barilaro hit back publicly, saying Turnbull must “set aside his war on the Coalition”.

“I was willing to give Mr Turnbull the benefit of the doubt, but by day two of his appointment, he has misjudged his role by calling for a moratorium on mining.

“The NSW government is committed to its future of coal statement which provides greater certainty to explorers, investors, industry stakeholders and communities about the future of coal mining in NSW,” Barilaro said in a statement to The Guardian.

Turnbull did not return serve, with the pair having a phone call on Wednesday evening.

Barilaro will be hoping this was the first and last problematic intervention of the former PM in the by-election campaign.

He will have enough on his hands trying to fend off strong campaigns from One Nation, the Shooters and Labor without having to contend with coalition partners.

The government wants to run an extremely tight ship in this race.

Upper Hunter Nationals MP Michael Johnsen resigned after being accused of a rape — which he strenuously denies — and triggered the by-election.

Barilaro’s chief of staff briefed every chief of staff in the Berejiklian government this week, telling them to stay out of the region unless they are invited. The plan is to rely strictly on core ministers in the campaign.

Like all by-elections, expectation management is in overdrive from all sides of politics, with Berejiklian declaring on Thursday she expected to lose the campaign.

“I have no doubt we won’t retain the seat,” Berejiklian said.

“It would take more than a miracle for us to keep the seat.”

McKay quite rightly retorted that Labor has never held the seat and it would equally be a miracle for her party to win.

The only thing that’s certain is that this will be a contest for the ages.