Luke Foley vs. Troy Grant in the bye-bye elections

TWO by-elections will determine whether two leaders stay or go — Labor’s Luke Foley and the Nationals’ Troy Grant, says Andrew Clennell.

“We will do everything we can to give you more control over your lives.”

— British Prime Minister Theresa May after the Brexit vote.

AS Mike Baird’s fortunes have slipped from being the most popular politician in Australia to being at risk of losing the next election in the space of two months, he may well reflect on those words.

The problem with banning the greyhound industry, backing no change to lockout laws, enforcing a mandate around ethanol-based petrol and amalgamating people’s councils is it all feeds into one narrative — the Premier trying to control people’s lives.

Theresa May had to give that reassuring speech to the British people, who were angry at what they saw as EU interference, to help the Tories and the establishment make a political comeback.

Perhaps Mike Baird needs to do the same. To show ­people he is listening. To ­explain his decisions.

The lockout laws review shapes as a big decision ­because there is no doubt community sentiment has moved on this issue.

A friend told me recently how at a children’s birthday party in the eastern suburbs a banker started blowing up about the greyhound ban. Not that he had any interest in the greyhounds, or indeed had ever bet on them.

Winning for Grant and Foley in these seats is enough, no matter what the swing is.

He just didn’t want ­government telling him what he could and couldn’t do.

“Why are they interfering in our lives all the time?” asked the man, who might otherwise be a typical Baird supporter.

It is a funny dilemma Baird finds himself in. He’s a bloke who loves a beer, a surf and the footy, yet he and his team have allowed him to be typecast as a northern ­beaches Christian wowser.

This weekend’s local government elections should bring a sense of more concern with a swing against the Liberals likely.

But November 12 is shaping as the biggest day in state politics for a while.

The results in the Orange and Wollongong by-elections could decide the fate of two political leaders. Funnily enough, neither of them is Mike Baird.

In one corner is Troy Grant, leader of the Nationals and Deputy Premier, who helped push Baird’s decision to ban the greyhound ­industry.

Grant’s Nationals hold the seat of Orange by 21.6 per cent. In ordinary circumstances, there should be no problem in defending it. But given the average state by-election swing in NSW is 15 per cent against the government — and memorably the last was 27 per cent against the Liberals in Miranda in 2013 — who knows?

With the unpopularity over the decision to ban the greyhound racing industry and the storm over underdosing of chemotherapy at the local hospital at Orange, a swing of 10-15 per cent could be a minimum.

Grant’s leadership would be under the most severe pressure imaginable if the Nats drop that seat. Some are already saying he would be hard-pressed to survive such a result.

Then there is Labor and the seat of Wollongong. Over the weekend Wollongong Lord Mayor Gordon Bradbery, who came within a whisker of snatching the seat at the 2011 election, ­announced he would stand again.

This has been an area with a history of independents and the Greens pulling surprise wins from Labor and leaders suffering accordingly — think Simon Crean after the ALP lost Cunningham to the Greens in 2003.

Opposition Leader Luke Foley’s future would be helped enormously by a win here. A loss and his rivals from the Right faction would have him in their sights again.

As someone pointed out to me the other day, winning for Grant and Foley in these seats is enough, no matter what the swing is.

Troy Grant.

Luke Foley.

But lose and there is no prize for second — except possibly a ­bullet.

There  is  no logical candidate  to replace Grant in the Nationals. His deputy, Adrian Piccoli, is not popular enough with the rest of his colleagues and the only one who wants it, Kevin Humphries, isn’t either.

But a loss will still send the hares running, if you’ll pardon the pun.

The government backbench, meanwhile, is generally nervous and some people are looking at numbers. Not to roll Baird, who is still very much their best chance of success at the 2019 election, but to have a replacement ready if the criticism gets too tough for him and he decides to pull the pin.

People are seeing if Transport Minister Andrew Constance has the sort of numbers that could see him defeat Treasurer Gladys ­Berejiklian.

It might not be a vote of no confidence, but it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence ­either.