Libs count on COVID credit to clinch win
This by-election will be the first real test of whether Gladys Berejiklian’s so called COVID carry-over credits are as big a lift on the government’s popularity as her strategists believe.
Opinion
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This by-election will be the first real test of whether Gladys Berejiklian’s so called COVID carry-over credits are as big a lift on the government’s popularity as her strategists believe.
If the Premier is experiencing a widening gap between her high popularity in voter land and her internal rolling crises inside government, on Saturday we’ll know just how big that gap is.
Traditionally, government’s don’t win by-elections. Particularly ones with small 2.6 per cent margins and an MP felled by allegations of misbehaviour.
If the government holds on, it would be in defiance of odds.
But COVID has changed traditions so that the political support for incumbents has never been stronger and from that perspective a loss of the seat should be seen as a blow to the Premier.
For Labor Leader Jodi McKay, this by-election is a test of her leadership.
The tightness of today’s poll reflects just how much is at stake in Saturday’s vote.
John Barilaro has run a strong, disciplined campaign for the Nationals but Labor’s campaign has also been focused and relentless.
A hard fought turnout by the minor parties will also influence the result and give us a strong insight into overall disillusionment with the Government and Labor.
Ms Berejiklian will be in minority whether she wins this by-election or not.
But while she may well be able to rely on the support of her ex-ministers from the cross bench, life in parliament will be a lot harder if she loses the Upper Hunter.
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