Labor’s elation over Malcolm Turnbull’s demise and Scott Morrison’s rise ‘shortsighted’

RELATABLE Scott Morrison is the last person Labor wants to face in an election insiders once thought unlosable, writes former Labor senator Sam Dastyari, and Bill Shorten would be well aware of that.

MY phone is lighting up: “Bill has been hit on the arse by a rainbow.”

This is just the latest text message coming through.

The “Bill” in this message is Bill Shorten and the message is from a senior shadow minister and one of Bill’s chief parliamentary lieutenants.

“Always lucky,” another says.

And — my favourite — a message from one of his rivals dripping with envy, “even Bill’s got it from here”.

In the US a change in leader is accompanied by an inauguration and a serenade from Beyoncé (if you are Obama, that is — if you are Trump you get Jackie Evancho, a runner-up on America’s Got Talent).

Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten speaks to media as Deputy Leader Tanya Plibersek looks on. Picture: AAP

In other places around the world a change in leader is accompanied by a convoy of Toyota HiLuxes heading to the capital bristling with assault rifles.

In Australia, we call a change in leader a Friday.

It’s a little after 1.30pm on Friday the 24th of August.

News has just come through that Scott Morrison is the next prime minister and anyone who is anybody in the Australian Labor Party is asking the same question — what does this mean for the next election?

Here is what I know. Bill Shorten was on track to win against Malcolm Turnbull. He had his measure.

Of course, I’m not meant to say that.

What I’m meant to say is that “nothing is for certain” and “every election can be won or lost” — but that’s rubbish.

LISTEN TO SAM DASTYARI ON MIRANDA LIVE:

I’m one of the very few people who sees the REAL polling and Bill was smashing it. I started a new question in the polling a few years ago. Not “who would you vote for at the next election” or “who is your preferred Prime Minister”. Yawn. Those questions tell you nothing.

My question was, “who would you rather live next door to, Bill Shorten or Malcolm Turnbull?”

Malcolm Turnbull addresses the media after vacating the Liberal Party leadership. Picture: Sean Davey

A better predictor of election outcomes than any poll. For what it was worth, people would rather live next door to Bill because he was a better guy but also next door to Malcolm because he would be good for property prices.

The day before the Liberal leadership ballot, panic had set through Labor circles when Julie Bishop entered the ring.

Little did we know that not a single member of the Western Australian Liberal Party was supporting her bid, and not a single one voted for her. The fear was this: She’s popular.

She’s electable and, while there might be questions over her ability, a snap poll would not allow them to be demonstrated.

Former Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop ahead of the second leadership challenge on Friday last week. Picture: AAP

I never agreed. I always thought she was all hat and no cattle (yes, it’s actually a saying).

Labor circles were elated when Morrison won.

But the elation from Labor on the election of Morrison and demise of Turnbull is shortsighted.

Scott Morrison is the worst possible outcome for Labor. And that’s something Bill Shorten would be well aware of.

Scott Morrison gives his first press conference at Parliament House in Canberra as Australian Prime Minister. Picture: Sean Davey

That’s not to say there wasn’t a danger in Peter Dutton as PM for Labor. He has appeal. The next election with Peter Dutton as prime minister was going to be a referendum on race and immigration.

That’s a huge problem for Labor, given we have not managed to adequately defend what was once beyond question.

The challenger had to be Peter Dutton — even though he had never hit double figures in popularity polls. Picture: Kym Smith

Labor needs to better explain the entire point of a migrant society. Otherwise, the next Peter Dutton will crucify us at an election.

We have to start now because, if we don’t, the conservatives throwing grenades from the backbenches will leave our country even more scarred and fragmented. But the current problem is worse in electoral terms.

Scott Morrison is the Bill Shorten of the Liberal Party. Yes. I went there.

He is hardworking, diligent, and will do whatever it takes.

He is focused and he is appealing. Two daughters. Suburban. A little daggy.

Let me take you back to the question that will best tell you an election outcome: “Who would you rather have as your next-door neighbour?”

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is presented with a slab of Betoota Bitter beer by locals in Quilpie as he tours drought affected regions in South West Queensland. Picture: Alex Ellinghausen

See? It’s a lot harder when you swap Malcolm out for Morrison.

To know Bill Shorten, you have to have been there when he displays his vulnerabilities. And that is few and far between. I’ve know Bill since I was 18 (I’m 35 now) and only once — once — did I see Bill being vulnerable.

It was election day 2016. I had just spent nearly two months travelling around the county on a bus emblazoned with his face.

It was 9.30am and we were heading to the second of the four electoral stops en route for a flight to Melbourne (home for Bill). “Sam?” Bill asked me questioningly.

“Yes?” I replied cautiously, worrying what his question would be.

“Do they understand? Do they understand I want to do more than him? That I want to do more with it than he does?” Bill asked me.

“He” was Turnbull and “they” were the Australian voters.

“I’m sure they do,” I told Bill reassuringly, but lying through my teeth.

Morrison comes with a broken party hellbent on destroying itself but he can’t be underestimated.

I wrongly assumed he would never get close. I wrongly thought Bill was finished. It turned out it was a handful of votes in a handful of seats that cost him a chance of winning then.

Bill still wants it and wants to do more with it.

But while my former colleagues might flippantly make remarks about how lucky Bill is right now, he more than anyone knows Morrison doesn’t mean rainbows and unicorns at the next election.

Morrison comes with a broken party hellbent on destroying itself but he can’t be underestimated. Dysfunctional parties have won before. As a man who lives by the adage, often wrongly ascribed to Thomas Jefferson, “the harder I work, the luckier I get,” Bill knows better than anyone that the fight has just started.

Sam Dastyari is a former Labor senator and host of Disgrace! on Network 10.