John Barilaro leads political all-stars battle for Eden-Monaro
Other parts of society may still be shut down by COVID-19, but the coming by-election for Eden-Monaro shows how our parliamentarians are still very much playing the game, writes Anna Caldwell.
Opinion
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At a private dinner over pizza and wine on Macquarie Street in February, NSW Moderate Liberals pondered how they could “neutralise” John Barilaro.
They were sick of him causing problems for their environmental agenda, and wondered which of his colleagues would be easier to work with if they could magically choose their own leader of the NSW Nationals.
It’s funny how things change because now Moderate godfather figure Don Harwin, who led the dinner conversation, has been dumped from the ministry and Barilaro is on the verge of spiriting himself off to the nation’s capital.
Anyone who knows John Barilaro knows he won’t risk it all with the intention of sitting on the federal backbench for the rest of his career should he contest the Eden-Monaro by-election as expected.
The NSW Deputy Premier is as ambitious as they come and will be aspiring to a leadership pathway should he throw his hat in the ring for what is shaping up to be a grab-the-popcorn by-election for the ages.
Early Nationals research shows the party branding in the region is not solid — but Barilaro’s personal brand eclipses this and the party believes it is strong enough to win.
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Preliminary Nationals polling under way last night showed Barilaro ahead in primary vote in a contest between Liberal Jim Molan and Labor’s expected candidate, star Bega Mayor Kristy McBain.
On primary vote Labor was at 29.1 per cent, Liberal at 20.3 and the Nationals edging above 32 — with the poll still in the field and incomplete.
Data earlier this week put the Nationals well ahead, but the possible entry of McBain may tighten the race.
Barilaro has asked long-term campaign adviser Jeff McCormack to run his campaign should he contest, and by yesterday McCormack was already overseeing the booking of ad space and graphics work in preparation.
But Barilaro assured me last night he was still weighing his options.
Despite the dinner crew contemplating his exit back in February, he’d been contacted by NSW MPs in the past day asking him to stay in state government.
He also has reservations about a three-cornered contest.
This by-election will be a unique campaign in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Depending on the timeline set and the evolution of the virus as we begin to ease restrictions, it is possible the campaign will take place primarily via media and in the absence of traditional town hall forums and meets and greets.
Barilaro, if he elects to run, will go into the race as favourite, having racked up tremendous popularity in his own electorate, winning more than 50 per cent of the primary vote at the last state election and every booth in his seat.
The NSW Liberals are split over whether the party should field its own candidate, forcing a three-cornered contest. Scott Morrison has made his position clear — he wants to contest and now nominations open today.
But some members of the moderate arm of the NSW branch — some from the pizza dinner crew — were happy to leave Barilaro the best run he can get at the seat.
This is what Barilaro wants and he has conveyed this message to the Liberal state executive, surprisingly finding common ground with those MPs who want to see the back of him.
There is, though, a push from the Liberals’ Centre-Right faction for Jim Molan, who is also weighing up his options.
Finally, there’s the spectre of NSW Transport Minister Andrew Constance, publicly popular after his leadership in the bushfires but who has agreed with his close friend Barilaro they will not contest against each other. He is waiting to see how the coming days play out.
If Labor recruits McBain, it’s a group of political all-stars and a contest for the ages.
It has been 100 years since a government has snatched a seat from the opposition in a by-election.
This is no ordinary time in history, though, with both Scott Morrison and Gladys Berejiklian riding high in opinion polls.
However, it’s worth noting Morrison had a very different reception in regional NSW only a few months ago when he bumbled his local fire response.
This presents an interesting quandary.
Eden-Monaro is a place that has been more affected by bushfires than by COVID-19, so will voters still harbour residual distrust for the PM or will those feelings have abated thanks to his strong pandemic leadership?
Barilaro grabbed the NSW fire recovery portfolio after the bushfires and has been able to establish himself as a strong advocate for the region.
His enemies will remind voters he was in London at the height of the bushfire crisis around New Year’s Eve.
They will also question his citizenship due to his Italian background, which Barilaro assured me last night was not a complication.
Berejiklian has told people close to her that she would be disappointed to lose Barilaro. The pair talk daily and have formed a friendship of sorts — she sees him as a regional asset.
There are other senior NSW Cabinet ministers who fear Barilaro will leave a leadership void in the state-based Nationals should he leave and openly wonder whether the government can even win back his seat in a by-election.
One likely Nationals candidate for the state seat of Monaro would be Upper House MP Bronnie Taylor, while leadership favourites are Paul Toole and Adam Marshall.
Whatever the outcome, this will be a by-election with long-term flow-on ramifications. But at the heart of this are the voters: not just those of Eden-Monaro but, if Barilaro goes to Canberra, those of all regional NSW, who are hurting.
Now is their chance to send a message — and we’ll all be watching to see what it is.