Joe Hildebrand: PM’s defence of controversial candidate Katherine Deves a carefully coded message

Scott Morrison isn’t using outspoken candidate Katherine Deves to win votes in Warringah. He’s using her to win votes everywhere else, writes Joe Hildebrand.

In the beige and stage-managed world of politics, the nuclear war erupting over the glamorous, outspoken and somewhat graphic Liberal candidate for Warringah is a welcome relief.

And not just for Labor leader Anthony Albanese.

For anyone who hasn’t already consumed their own body weight in popcorn, Katherine Deves has come under fire for historic social media posts that described trans children as “surgically mutilated and sterilised”, claimed “half of all males with trans identities are sex offenders”, said LGBT awareness initiative Wear It Purple Day was a “grooming tactic” and revealed she was triggered by the rainbow flag.

Setting aside the quality of any of these comments, this makes her a very strange pick to win a seat in which 75 per cent of electors voted in favour of same-sex marriage – one of the highest results in the country.

This essentially allows for only two possibilities.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison is sending a 'values signal' to marginal western Sydney electorates who were not supportive of gay marriage in his selection of a controversial gender warrior for the seat of Warringah.

The first is that the specially-convened Liberal triumvirate of PM Scott Morrison, Premier Dominic Perrottet and former party president Chris McDiven that installed her was ­completely unaware of her social media history.

This is all but impossible to believe.

Prospective candidates on both sides are routinely grilled on whether there is anything in their past that could discredit the party whose endorsement they are seeking. The parties themselves are supposed to conduct due diligence.

And while the NSW Liberal preselection process has been an unabashed basket case, the nature of preselection itself means any candidate’s previous sins are quickly and enthusiastically brought to light by their opponents.

Thus it is fairly safe to assume the only remaining possibility: that Morrison knew the history, knew the risk and decided to put Deves up anyway.

And this leaves us with the only remaining question: why?

Katherine Deves, co-founder of Save Women's Sport, is a calculated risk for Scott Morrison. Picture: Supplied

Assuming Deves doesn’t have photographs of all three preselectors in compromising positions – and presumably she would have tweeted about it if she did – then we are left with a delectably intriguing scenario: the PM knew about the posts, knew they would come out, knew that they would render her incapable of winning Warringah but still wanted her as the candidate.

And this leads us to the obvious and inevitable conclusion that even some in the PM’s own party have seemingly failed to grasp: Morrison isn’t using Deves to win votes in Warringah.

He’s using her to win votes everywhere else.

For in practice Deves is not so much a candidate as a cypher, a vessel for the PM to send a coded message to the rest of the Australian public that he cannot say outright himself.

Thus he can endorse Deves’ position opposing biologically male trans women in sport and make clear his views to the electorate, but presenting more as a loyal leader supporting his candidate.

Of course he still cops a backlash but only as the one who seconds the motion, not as the one who wrote it.

And given the one who wrote it is a woman who has framed it as championing women’s rights, this then becomes a classic wedge for the feminist left. JK Rowling says hi.

Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling is another outspoken feminist under fire for alleged transphobia. Picture: Rob Stothard/Getty Images

Whatever you think of the actual issue, it is a brilliant political play.

While it seems certain Warringah will never elect a candidate with a whiff of antipathy to the gay and trans cause, you can bet your bippy that other electorates with conservative social values will be picking up what the PM is putting down.

This famously includes those with many religious migrant communities at odds with the white bread secular WASPs of Warringah. And these include Labor seats in western Sydney.

We know the Coalition has concluded its only hope in this election is to attack Labor seats in NSW, therefore offsetting expected losses in WA and Queensland.

One of the seats it is targeting is Parramatta, where just 38 per cent voted yes to same-sex marriage versus 62 against.

And in Fowler, where Kristina Keneally could face a surprise upset from independent Dai Le – backed by ex-Labor southwest supremo Frank Carbone – the figure is even more stark: 36 to 64.

Fairfield councillor Dai Le is giving Labor’s Kristina Keneally a run for her money. Picture: Jeremy Piper

If such electorates were so opposed to gay people even marrying each other you can guess at how enthusiastic they are about transgender activism.

The moral measure of this is a matter for them and their gods but the political measure of it is a matter for the Australian Electoral Commission, and that is where reality comes crashing through the door.

A win in either or both of these seats makes Labor’s path to majority government immeasurably harder.

You can rest assured it is electorates like these that are pencilled in the Coalition’s “possible pick-ups” column, not Warringah.

One of the golden rules of warfare is to distract the enemy’s eye. We’re watching that rule being played out right now but it isn’t playing out where we’re looking.