James O’Doherty: Why Albo will be glued to results of looming council elections
A swing away from Labor in areas with large Islamic populations in September’s local government elections could be the proverbial canary in the coal mine for a bigger whack to come, writes James O’Doherty.
Opinion
Don't miss out on the headlines from Opinion. Followed categories will be added to My News.
It was late last year that Labor powerbrokers realised that the worsening conflict in Gaza would become a massive test for the party’s unity at home.
Angry, and at times violent, protests which broke out almost immediately following Hamas’ October 7 terror attacks have since become entrenched threats to social cohesion.
Worsening antisemitism and a growing anger at the humanitarian crisis in Gaza which has bubbled under the surface (and frequently boiled over) is now set to explode at Labor’s state conference in just over two weeks.
When Prime Minister Anthony Albanese takes to the stage in front of hundreds of true believers at Sydney’s Town Hall, his speech threatens to be overshadowed by what is expected to be a massive pro-Palestinian protest outside.
The speech is expected to be on the Saturday. The same day, up to 10,000 pro-Palestinian protesters could be gathered outside, according to organisers.
The conflict will not just be outside; on the conference floor, left-wing Labor branches, mainly from Western Sydney, are preparing for a showdown over the Israel-Hamas war.
More than 30 motions have been included in a draft policy book ahead of the conference, variously demanding “immediate recognition of Palestine”, an end to “genocide” from Israel, and an acknowledgment that “for too long, the human rights of the Palestinian people have been grossly violated”.
This is a debate that Premier Chris Minns desperately wants to avoid. He (rightly) thinks the war is a federal issue, and he wants to focus on issues closer to home, like the housing crunch and cost of living crisis.
But he cannot close is eyes and hope that it goes away; the NSW Labor Conference has a significant bearing on federal Labor’s policies.
The headache will be made more acute by independent Muslim-linked candidates preparing to challenge Labor heavyweights at the next federal election.
Among the number of groups which have sprung up promising to support pro-Palestinian candidates is The Muslim Vote — taking its name from a UK movement which cost Britain’s Labour government a number of seats.
While the federal poll could be as late as May next year, Australian Labor will get the first indication of any trouble in September, at the NSW council elections.
Insiders are bracing for a big hit to Labor in Western Sydney, including in council areas like Cumberland and Canterbury-Bankstown.
Those local government areas are represented at the federal level by Jason Clare (in Blaxland) and Tony Burke (Watson).
Albanese will be watching the results of Western Sydney’s local government elections more closely than he ever has before.
A collapse in support for Labor council candidates in certain communities “will be the red flag, or at least the first proof point, that something’s going on with regards to this community and they are intent on sending Labor a message”, Labor-aligned pollster Kos Samaras says.
The RedBridge director says voters may be “less animated” to send a message at the local government elections than they may be when it comes to the federal poll.
So a swing away from Labor in areas with large Islamic populations in the council elections could be the proverbial canary in the coal mine for a bigger whack to come.
“Those from the community who want to be sending a message have their eyes set on Canberra rather than local government, but it’ll be an interesting first measure for sure.”
Left-wing Labor MPs and branch members have been blasting their own side over the conflict in Gaza for months.
But even among Labor’s staunch pro-Palestinian wing, smarter figures know that bagging the PM too much is risky.
The few wiser heads in Labor agitating for the government to change its stance on an issue on the other side of the world know that they can only go so far in criticising their own side, lest they push voters away.
However, the question remains: what outcomes could candidates backed by The Muslim Vote actually achieve?
No Australian political candidate could, with good conscience, go to the polls with a promise to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Major party candidates could conceivably have some impact on the Australian government’s stance on the conflict, but that will not deliver peace in our time.
We also do not know what domestic issues these candidates will be campaigning on.
As one level-headed Labor source puts it: “This is a foreign conflict, to for us to say that we can provide any comfort either way is just not true.
“We need to talk about the things that really matter,” they insist.
The politics of grievance will only go so far in winning votes, when the matters of contention are half a world away.
It also must be remembered that, regardless of where people come from, all voters are Australians first.
Anyone seeking election would do well to remember the truism that “all politics is local”.
Do you have a story for The Daily Telegraph? Message 0481 056 618 or email tips@dailytelegraph.com.au
The real reason why Harry and William will reconcile
Striking similarities between Charles and his younger son at the mid-life crisis points of their lives suggest Harry will eventually mature and find happiness — and make up with William, argues Angela Mollard.
Forced into a corner, Labor finally finds a little spine on Israel
After a year of muddle that has seen pro-Hezbollah marches in our streets, a shocking rise in anti-Semitism, and society all but torn apart, Labor has begun to find its voice on the Middle East.