James O’Doherty: How NSW Liberals hope to get Perrottet relected
Dominic Perrottet has led NSW for a year. Hip pocket relief amid the rising cost of living— and any further MP scandals, or lack of— could make or break his re-election campaign, writes James O’Doherty.
Opinion
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Dominic Perrottet marked the first anniversary of becoming Premier this week.
Now, closely guarded internal research has given an insight into what he needs to do if he has any chance of staying in the top job for another year.
The issues briefs, recounted to me this week, reveal how the Liberals think they can win the next election.
According to the internal research, the main issues exercising voters’ minds are family budgets and health – followed by daylight.
The government views the March election as a battle on the cost of living.
Premier Perrottet’s job will be to highlight his economic credentials, convincing voters that only the Coalition can make life easier on their hip pocket.
Internal Liberal polling – in line with published opinion polls – shows the Coalition brand took a hit following its thumping at the federal election.
But now that Anthony Albanese is in power, the decisions of the federal government could end up working in the Premier’s electoral favour.
The Albanese government’s wavering and division over stage three tax cuts plays into the NSW Coalition’s hands.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers has insisted the government’s position has “not changed” but said he was committed to a responsible budget.
“My job, as the Treasurer of this country, is to make sure that the budget is on as sustainable footing as it can be to deal with the challenges that we anticipate,” he said this week.
The tax cuts are set to benefit millions of Australians.
As The Daily Telegraph reports today, nurses, teachers, tradies and emergency service workers will pay thousands of dollars more in tax if the Albanese government backtracks on their election promise to honour the tax cuts.
A hairdresser earning $60,000 a year would pay $400 in less tax every year under the changes in stage three, while a teacher on $70,000 would save $620.
If the federal government is still committed to delivering the tax cuts as legislated, the increasing number of backbenchers speaking out against the cost-of-living relief are doing Albanese no favours.
Any equivocation from Albanese will just give the Liberal campaign machine ammunition to paint the Labor brand as untrustworthy when it comes to election commitments and hip-pocket relief.
NSW Labor treasury spokesman Daniel Mookhey told me on Thursday that any income tax changes “are a matter for the federal government” while noting that federal Labor has “made clear their policy in relation to stage three tax cuts hasn’t changed”.
Perrottet, in contrast, completely backs the final tranche of legislated tax relief. As the Premier said this week: “These are tax cuts for aspirational families dealing with the cost of living.
“Election commitments should be honoured.”
To the credit of both Perrottet and Labor leader Chris Minns, there has been bipartisan caution over another federal issue – Albanese’s plan to repatriate some 16 women and 42 children held in a Syrian detention camp.
It is speculated that about 60 wives, sons and daughters of jailed or slain ISIS fighters would eventually settle in Sydney.
This is a sensitive issue. There has long been increasing international pressure for Australia to bring its citizens home and the federal government insists the repatriation mission is consistent with security advice. But, Sydneysiders would be forgiven for having concerns about the plan.
It is notable that Minns stopped short of blindly backing in his federal Labor counterpart – the last thing he needs is to open himself up to attacks over national security.
Liberals think that if Perrottet can avoid scandals and work on getting the party’s primary vote back, they will have a shot at a historic fourth term. That might be easier said than done.
When Perrottet took over as Premier a year ago, he was already on the back foot, having taken over the top job amid a damaging corruption probe into Gladys Berejiklian.
The Independent Commission Against Corruption is notoriously slow in finalising its investigations, but if the Macquarie Street rumour mill is to be believed, the corruption watchdog could release its report into the former premier as early as this month.
There will be collateral damage for the government if it is anything short of a full exoneration for Berejiklian.
The Barilaro saga has also seriously damaged the Premier.
In attempting to avoid a perception of granting a job to a mate, the government landed itself in a scandal entirely of its own making.
Contrast Barilaro’s appointment – ostensibly made under a flawed public sector process – with that of former federal Labor minister Stephen Smith as UK High Commissioner. The Albanese government has escaped much of the criticism levelled at Perrottet.
Perhaps the crime was not Barilaro’s appointment, but continued insistence from key figures – including former trade minister Stuart Ayres – that the decision was made by independent public servants, at “arm’s length” from the government.
In fact, Labor sources believe Perrottet would have escaped relatively unscathed if Barilaro had been chosen by cabinet – not through a bureaucratic job search.
Perrottet and Ayres “probably would have copped less heat” if they “didn’t pretend that this thing was anything other than a ‘jobs for the boys’ appointment”, one source told me.
Perrottet has had little clear air in the year since he took the top job.
His electoral future rides on the next six months being scandal-free.
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