James O’Doherty: How Minns’ budgetary restraint could lose him the election

NSW Labor Leader Chris Minns has vowed not to ‘dangle false hope with unfunded promises’, but will his moral stance cost him the election, asks James O’Doherty.

Dominic Perrottet is spending so much time in and around Leppington that a Liberal operative this week joked the party should set up a satellite office in the booming Western Sydney suburb.

To the west of Liverpool and east of Bringelly, the area is growing so fast that it is home to a new electorate, of the same name.

The seat of Leppington, running from Eagle Vale in the south to Kemps Creek in the north, is notionally Labor but with a margin of just 1.5 per cent.

It is one of the few electorates the Liberals think they could pick up on March 25. Perrottet’s campaign movements have been squarely focused in the west.

Mostly on the defensive, Perrottet has also targeted his visits in places like Parramatta and Riverstone.

For both leaders, the war will be won in the west — and these high-growth areas are central to both Perrottet and the man who wants his job.

At The Daily Telegraph’s Future Western Sydney lunch on Thursday, Labor leader Chris Minns argued that population growth in these areas is far outpacing the infrastructure being provided. This argument will bite with people in booming suburbs struggling on clogged roads and overcrowded schools.

Labor leader Chris Minns (l to r), Editor Ben English and NSW Premier, Dominic Perrottet, at The Daily Telegraph's Future Western Sydney 2023 lunch. Picture: Justin Lloyd

But in scrapping plans to build a Metro from Parramatta to the new Western Sydney Airport, Minns is doing the exact thing he has criticised the government for: failing to provide future-proofed transport links.

Indeed, the proposed Westmead to Badgerys Creek metro line is decades away. The Coalition has committed money to fund a business case but nothing more. But by scrapping that business case, Labor will all but ensure it never happens.

Minns argues that he cannot promise to build the Metro rail link because there is no money in the coffers to deliver it.

The Labor leader wants voters to believe that if he makes a promise, he will deliver it.

“We will fully fund infrastructure, be honest about what we can build — and when — and we’ll refuse to dangle false hope with unfunded promises,” he told the Future Western Sydney lunch.

In his sharpest attack against the government yet on spending, Minns argues that Perrottet has committed to $50 billion worth of infrastructure it has set aside no money for — like metros to the new airport, the northern beaches link tunnel and raising the Warragamba Dam wall.

Minns argues that if re-elected, Perrottet will need to break a promise by selling off more assets or increase government debt even higher.

An artist’s impression of the proposed Western Sydney Metro.

“The winner of the next election in 23 days will inherit a state budget forecasting an annual interest bill of $6.8 billion in 2025-26.

“If the unfunded infrastructure is added to this, our annual interest bill, already the highest in State history, will go from $6.8 billion per year to $8.6 billion per year,” Minns told the Future Western Sydney event.

But arguing he will be a man of restraint comes at a cost. Minns is already being forced to cancel infrastructure projects from opposition, fuelling the Coalition’s argument he cannot be trusted to keep the state moving forward.

One of Perrottet’s favourite jibes is attacking Labor over its previous opposition to WestConnex. The massive infrastructure spend alone has transformed Western Sydney.

But if Minns wins, anything of the same scale appears to be off the cards.

As The Daily Telegraph revealed, Minns will spend $1.1 billion on a “Local Roads not Toll Roads” plan — paid for by scrapping a proposed 11km tunnel underneath the Blue Mountains.

The government argues that by scrapping major roads and metro links, Minns will take NSW back to the days of the last Labor government when nothing got built.

“You’ve got to have the imagination and vision of what our city, the western city, is going to look like, in years to come. If you don’t plan for the future, then we won’t move forward,” Perrottet said on Thursday.

The last Labor Premier, Kristina Keneally, has a more recent legacy that could also bite Minns in his bid to form government.

The former Premier turned Senator was sensationally rejected by southwest Sydney voters when she attempted to parachute into the seat of Fowler from Scotland Island.

The driving force of Dai Le’s successful campaign, Frank Carbone, yesterday registered as a candidate for the Labor stronghold of Cabramatta.

Labor operatives are terrified that he could win, which could make Minns’ hard road to government almost insurmountable.

The one thing that could keep Carbone out of the race is if Labor committed to building the metro line Minns effectively cancelled on Sunday.

For Minns, that’s a hell of a Sophie’s choice.

Got a news tip? Email [e-mail]