James O’Doherty: Coalition and ALP needs to pick state candidates ASAP

Neither the Coalition nor Labor can afford to lose any seats at next year’s state election, so they should learn from the federal poll and pick their candidates early, writes James O’Doherty.

There is some irony that when Dominic Perrottet texted his condolences to Scott Morrison in the wake of the Coalition’s election defeat, the Premier told the outgoing PM that history would judge him well in leading Australia out of the pandemic.

The friendly exchange was a far cry from last year, when Morrison basically admitted he hurled an f-bomb at the Premier over the Job­Saver support package which helped NSW businesses and workers crippled by the long Delta lockdown.

At the time, Perrottet had been willing to go it alone with a state-run JobKeeper program until the federal government decided to step in.

Perrottet has made no secret of pushing for big reforms.

The expletive-laden blow-up was one of a number of times when Perrottet — later with the help of his Victorian counterpart — pushed the envelope with the federal government on the road out of Covid.

Premier Dominic Perrottet needs to sell optimism, hope and positivity until next year’s state election. Picture: Terry Pontikos

Ahead of next year’s election, Perrottet is expected to continue pushing for reforms to help families, rather than relying on the government’s record.

One of the lessons from Saturday’s results, he says, is that voters have lost trust with major parties.

“The public wants positivity, hope and optimism,” he said.

The NSW government is seeking a fourth term, just as Scott Morrison was on Saturday.

Government figures see the risk that after more than 10 years in power, voters will want a change.

They believe they could risk defeat if they go to the election without promising a big policy idea to engage voters.

“We need to have bold ideas that take our country forward and they can’t sit in the too-hard basket,” Perrottet said this week. “The Liberal Party and the Labor Party will be successful if they continue to focus on what matters.”

So far, Perrottet’s major ideas for reform have received little traction, like his proposal to slowly replace one-off stamp duty payments with an annual land tax.

Because it would require a big chunk of money from Canberra to implement, that idea is still sitting on the shelf.

Treasurer Matt Kean’s budget will form the building blocks for the government’s election campaign. Picture: Tim Hunter

Anthony Albanese did not exactly jump at the idea of working with NSW on stamp duty reform when I asked him about the proposal during the election campaign: “We will determine our own policies,” he said.

But there is hope in the state government that the new PM could be open to some bold proposals pushed by the states.

The group of state and territory leaders, now chaired by Perrottet, will soon write to Albanese proposing widespread health reform. Perrottet is hopeful the ideas will find a kind ear.

Next month’s state budget will be a pivotal moment in the Perrottet government’s pitch to voters ahead of the election. It will form the building blocks for the government’s election campaign. Perrottet and Treasurer Matt Kean have already signalled there could be moves to address major problems with childcare in the June 21 economic blueprint.

Chris Minns’ budget in reply, to be delivered about a year after he took the job, will likewise be critical for the Labor leader. In contrast to Albanese’s pitch to voters, Minns won’t be running a small-target strategy.

Labor knows it cannot win just by seeking to leverage dislike of the ­current government.

With hip-pocket pressures like ­rising inflation and interest rate rises only set to worsen, expect Labor to have a laser-like focus on cost of ­living.

State Labor MPs, many sporting some sore heads this week after revelling late into the night on Saturday, know they could still cop a bruising next year despite Albanese’s win.

Federal Labor’s primary vote — 32.8 per cent on the latest count — would be a wipe-out if replicated here next year.

Both the Liberals and Labor are concerned about the big independent vote in the federal poll.

A teal wave poses a risk for the Liberal party from the north shore to the northern beaches, not least in Willoughby, where party sources are worried that with more time and money, a progress independent could have knocked off Tim James in the March by-election.

Dai Le smashing Kristina Keneally in Fowler is similarly a stark warning to Labor.

NSW already has a large crossbench in the lower house propping up the minority Coalition government, including former Liberals John Sidoti and Gareth Ward.

The Coalition needs to keep all the seats it currently holds and pick up more to govern in majority. Labor needs to pick up 10 seats to govern in its own right.

That is why both parties will be wise to heed Saturday’s lesson that waiting until the last minute to choose candidates could spell disaster. There is still deep anger in the NSW Liberal Party over the stalemate that delayed candidates in winnable seats getting into the field.

Party sources want the state pre­selection process to get under way sooner rather than later, with candidates finalised as early as August.

There is widespread speculation that a number of senior ministers, ­including David Elliott and Brad Hazzard, may not seek re-election, and the Liberals need good candidates in target seats like Londonderry, Strathfield, the new seat of Leppington, and even the Labor leader’s ultra-marginal seat of Kogarah.

Labor has its own preselection bushfires to sort, notably in the southwest where Jihad Dibb’s seat of Lakemba has been abolished, forcing a three-way seat shuffle.

As the federal poll showed, voters made up their mind early: neither Perrottet or Minns can wait for the campaign to sell their message.