James Morrow: Israel’s attack on Iran was predictable, the outcome is not

While it will be great news for the world if Israel has managed to shatter Iran’s nuclear program, writes James Morrow, the question, as always, must be what will happen next.

For all the world’s chaos, some things remain entirely predictable.

A little over two months ago, US President Donald Trump gave Iran notice it was on a 60-day deadline to come to the table and do a deal over its nuclear weapons program – or else.

On Friday, just two days after the clock ran out, Israel – presumably with the approval of the White House – acted.

It is still early days, but initial reports suggest that most, if not all, of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard leadership were killed in the strikes.

Top nuclear scientists were also reportedly taken out.

People sift through buildings reduced to rubble in Nobonyad Square following Israeli air strikes in Tehran. Picture: Getty Images

If the strikes are as devastating as they first appear, it would not only be an extraordinary coup by Israel but also an incredible failure by Iran to protect its top people.

However, while it will be unequivocally great news for the world if Israel has managed to shatter Iran’s nuclear program, the question, as always, must be where this goes.

Women weep as they mourn the death of loved ones killed during the overnight Israeli bombardment. Picture: AFP

Iran, through whatever leadership it has remaining, will surely declare war not only on Israel (the “Little Satan”) but also, officially or not, target the Great Satan – the US.

Iran’s mullahs will now see the conflict as existential – us or them – and act accordingly.

The obvious response – a massive ballistic missile response – may not even be technically possible for Iran, and if recent history is any guide would be largely repelled.

The more threatening, and worrying, possibility is that Iran activates its sleepers in the West, including the US.

Even if this attack was entirely predictable, what comes next is not.