While this has obviously been a legal case, the reason we have all been so fascinated by it is that it is also a political case

Thanks to the steady deterioration in the fortunes of the Labor government, the findings from this defamation trial could determine who becomes the next premier of Victoria.

It’s the decision which could alter the course of Victorian history.

At 10.15am on Thursday, Justice David O’Callaghan – known to his colleagues as “DO’C” – will hand down his findings in the matter of Moira Deeming versus John Pesutto.

This should be the happy time for Pesutto – two years into his tenure as Liberal leader he’s ahead in the polls – up against a decade old government that is out of puff and out of money.

He’s managed to stare down his internal opponents who, while they talk a good game on the phone to journalists, can’t seem to count.

MP Moira Deeming has been in a defamation battle with John Pesutto. Picture: David Geraghty

There’s just the pesky matter of this defamation case to be got through before he can relax at what should be a happy Christmas at Chez Pesutto.

The festive spirit will vanish however if Justice O’Callaghan finds Pesutto defamed the exiled state MP when he moved to suspend her from the parliamentary party after she attended the Let Women Speak rally on the steps on Parliament, an event which was also attended by a bunch of neo-Nazis.

There are a range of findings open to His Honour, which make it difficult to predict what a win or loss will mean for Pesutto.

In what we might call the “early Christmas” option, O’Callaghan’s decision is a complete vindication, in which he not finds not only did Pesutto not defame Deeming but His Honour also makes a number of unflattering observations in passing – or obit dicta as the learned friends call them – about her truthfulness and the character of her associates Kellie-Jay Keen and Angie Jones.

Kellie-Jay Keen is one of Moira Deeming’s associates. Picture: Getty

Which would also mean there’s a nice fat costs order waiting under the tree for him.

The “cold Turkey” outcome would see the judge deciding not only did Pesutto defame Deeming but the Opposition leader is a liar, a sneak and a perjurer who deserves to pay millions in punitive damages to the blameless victim of his calumnies.

In which case this Friday is likely to be Boxing Day at his office at 157 Spring St.

The problem is that based on experience, it is not uncommon for judges in defo cases to give what amount to split decisions – finding some things in favour of the applicant and some for the respondent.

It is difficult to predict what a win or loss will mean for John Pesutto. Picture: David Crosling

The outcome in these cases – that is to say the damages – can seem underwhelming and the process of determining how much the plaintiff can recover in costs can be a drawn out affair which is eventually resolved long after public interest in the dispute has vanished.

And from the outset while this has obviously been a legal case, the reason we have all been so fascinated by it is that it is also a political case.

Which, thanks to the steady deterioration in the fortunes of the Labor government, has in the time the fight has been going on, changed from a blue inside a hopeless-case opposition to a trial which could determine who becomes the next premier of Victoria.

Originally published as While this has obviously been a legal case, the reason we have all been so fascinated by it is that it is also a political case